Published Mar 8, 2023
Which opening matchup suits Alabama basketball better in SEC Tournament?
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James Benedetto  •  TideIllustrated
Staff Writer
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In mere hours, the SEC Championship tournament will be underway at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.

The No. 1-seed Crimson Tide will look to pick up its second SEC Championship in three seasons, but in order to do that, it needs to figure out who it's playing first. Alabama will play the winner of Mississippi State and Florida which tips off on Thursday at noon.

With some time to kill, here's a look at both teams as Tide Illustrated examines which opponent Alabama would want to play on Friday.

Florida

Record: 16-15, 9-9 in the SEC

Previous meeting against Alabama: 97-69 loss in Tuscaloosa on Feb. 8

Outlook: After losing six out of seven games, the Gators are coming off back-to-back wins over Georgia and LSU. Florida is led by All-SEC first-team forward Colin Castleton, who averages 16.0 points and 7.7 rebounds and ranks second in the conference with 3.0 blocks per game.

Why Alabama wants the Gators: Castleton suffered a broken hand against Ole Miss on Feb. 15 and missed the last five games in the regular season. Sources say that the 6-foot-11 forward will miss the rest of the season, which not only ends his collegiate career but was also the Gators' leading scorer and is ranked sixth in the conference in points per game.

Why Alabama doesn’t want the Gators: While Alabama nearly scored 100 points against Florida in its lone matchup of the season, the Gators are still a highly efficient defensive team. According to KenPom, the Gators rank 31st in defensive efficiency allowing 95.9 points per 100 possessions. The Crimson Tide has faced seven teams in the top 35 of defensive efficiency this season and while Castleton's injury may affect Florida's defense, it hasn't impacted the group nearly as much as one might expect.

"Florida is definitely different now that Castleton is down," Alabama head coach Nate Oats said during his Wednesday press conferrence. "It took them a little bit to adjust. (Riley) Kugel is playing great and other guys have stepped up. They're different, they play smaller and they play (Alex) Fudge at the five more. If Florida ends up winning it we're going to have to make more adjustments from the first time we played them just because they're different."

Mississippi State

Record: 20-11, 8-10 in the SEC

Previous meetings against Alabama: 66-63 loss in Tuscaloosa on Jan 25, 78-67 loss in Starkville on Dec. 28

Outlook: Despite winning its first 11 games of the season, and garnering a brief appearance in the AP Top 25, it was all shortlived for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs finished the year with a 9-11 mark, falling to Missouri, Vanderbilt and Georgia. However, it did pick up ranked wins against TCU and Texas A&M, which highlighted the team's inconsistency this season. Mississippi State is led by Tolu Smith who averages 15.4 points per game and 8.4 rebounds per game.

Why Alabama wants the Bulldogs: Alabama has played Mississippi State twice and won both times which should give the Crimson Tide ample confidence to do it again on Friday. Alabama has won all of its repeat matchups this season, sweeping the home-and-home series against the Bulldogs, Vanderbilt, Auburn and Arkansas.

Why Alabama doesn’t want the Bulldogs: It's a rarity to beat any basketball team three-consecutive times in three meetings. In fact, Alabama has played a team three times in a season just 75 times in 110 seasons of basketball. The Crimson Tide has won all three of those matchups just 25 times in program history. It's extremely difficult to pull off and it gets even more difficult as Mississippi State with its No. 7 ranking in defensive efficency according to KenPom, kept both games close with Alabama this season.

"If Mississippi State wins, we've played them twice," Oats said. "They're one of the hardest playing teams in America. We're going to have to come ready to go. Obviously Tolu Smith's one of the best players in the league. They say it's hard to beat a team three times, there's some truth beacuse they've made adjustements and they'll make another adjustment."

Benny’s breakdown

Who should Alabama want to face: Florida

The loss of Castleton is huge as Florida ranks No. 113 in offensive efficiency, tallying 108.7 points per 100 possessions. Compare that to Alabama's mark of 116.1 and an offensive mismatch begins to appear. Will Richard will have the offense flow through him more as he's now the team's leading scorer with 10.8 points per game.

Against Alabama, he tallied 11 points on 3 of 9 shooting including a 2-for-5 mark from behind the 3-point line. However, his scoring has gone to a new level against Georgia and LSU as he led the Gators with 24 and 18 points respectively. He along with Riley Kugel, Kyle Lofton and Trey Bonham all average 30% or more from deep but Alabama is built to defend smaller teams that like to shoot from range.