Henderson: The Road to the National Championship Game, Just Win
Just win baby. That is all Alabama has to do to reach the National Title Game. What if they lose to Auburn and Georgia beats Auburn in the SEC Championship game? Will a one-loss Alabama team be selected to the College Football Playoff? Today, Kyle Henderson of BamaInsider.com breaks down the College Football Playoff picture for the remaining eight teams still alive and as you’ll see, technically we’re already in the playoffs.
All Alabama Has To Do Is Win Out
Scenarios For Alabama
In If: Alabama beats Auburn, then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship
Bubble If: Auburn beats Alabama, then Auburn beats Georgia in SEC Championship
Out If: Auburn beats Alabama, then Georgia beats Auburn in SEC Championship
Henderson: Alabama controls their own destiny. Win out and they are in the college football playoff. Lose to Auburn and things get sketchy for their outlook as they’ll have to hope for Auburn to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game. If that happens, it will be up to the college football selection committee to decide if a one-loss Alabama team qualifies for the four-team semifinal tournament.
All Miami Has To Do Is Win Out
Scenarios For Miami
In If: Miami beats Pittsburgh, then beats Clemson in the ACC Championship
Bubble If: Pittsburgh beats Miami, then Miami beats Clemson in the ACC Championship
Bubble If: Miami beats Pittsburgh, then Clemson beats Miami in the ACC Championship
Out If: Pittsburgh beats Miami, then Clemson beats Miami in ACC Championship
Henderson: Like all undefeated power-five conference teams, you win all your games and you’re in the college football playoffs. Right now, Miami is in the driver’s seat and while they had to come from behind to beat Virginia 44-28, a win is a win. Miami plays this Friday against Pittsburgh and while they’ve already clinched their position in the ACC Championship game, there is little room for error, a loss to Pittsburgh would end their hopes unless they beat Clemson in the following week.
Another scenario is if Miami beats Pittsburgh and then loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship game, If that happens, it will be up to the college football selection committee to decide if a one-loss Miami team qualifies for the four-team semifinal tournament.
Oklahoma Is Sitting Pretty Even With One Loss
Scenarios For Oklahoma
In If: Oklahoma beats West Virginia, then Oklahoma wins Big 12 Championship
In If: Oklahoma wins out and Alabama, Wisconsin, and Miami all finish undefeated
Bubble If: Oklahoma, Alabama, Clemson or Miami, and Wisconsin all finish with one loss
Out: If they lose to West Virginia or lose in the Big 12 Championship
Henderson: Despite having one-loss, Oklahoma’s chances of reaching the college football playoffs look very good right now entering the Thanksgiving week. If Oklahoma wins out and Alabama, Wisconsin, and Miami win out, the Sooners are in and likely headed to the Sugar Bowl to face Alabama for a 1 vs. 4 matchup in New Orleans.
The only way Oklahoma is out is if they lose to West Virginia, lose in the Big 12 Championship Game, or if somehow Alabama/Georgia, Clemson/Miami, and Wisconsin all finish with one-loss. The loss to Iowa State is not terrible when you look at what the Cyclones have done this year.
Clemson Still In The Driver's Seat To Reach Semifinals
Scenarios For Clemson
In If: Clemson beats South Carolina, then Clemson beats Miami in ACC Championship
Out If: Clemson loses to South Carolina and then Miami beats Clemson in ACC Championship
Out if: Clemson beats South Carolina, then Miami beats Clemson in ACC Championship
Henderson: Clemson is in a very good spot right now. They beat rival South Carolina and then beat Miami, they are in the college football playoffs. If they lose in the ACC Championship game Clemson is out.
All Wisconsin Has To Do Is Win Out
Scenarios For Wisconsin
In If: Wisconsin beats Minnesota, then Wisconsin wins Big Ten Championship
Bubble If: Lose to Minnesota, then win Big Ten Championship
Bubble If: Lose in Big Ten Championship Game and Auburn wins SEC, Oklahoma does not win Big 12, and Clemson wins ACC Championship Game. Likely two teams from the Big Ten reach the playoffs in this scenario.
Out If: Lose Minnesota beats Wisconsin and Wisconsin loses in the Big Ten Championship
Henderson: No one is giving Wisconsin respect and all they do is keep winning. They just beat No. 19 Michigan 24-10 and have Minnesota and the Big Ten Championship game left which will be against Ohio State or Penn State. If Wisconsin wins out, they are in.
Wisconsin is on the bubble if they lose to Minnesota and then win the Big Ten Championship game, they are on the bubble if they lose in the Big Ten Championship, but if Auburn wins the SEC, Oklahoma does not win the Big 12, and Clemson wins the ACC, this is the chaos scenario where two teams from the Big Ten would likely reach the playoffs.
Even With Two Losses, Auburn Is Still Alive
Scenarios For Auburn
In If: Auburn beats Alabama and then Auburn beats Georgia
Out If: Alabama beats Auburn
Henderson: It’s pretty simple if you Auburn. Do or die. There is no bubble for Auburn and if they end the year beating Alabama and Georgia, they’ll be an absolute shoe-in into the playoffs.
Georgia Has To Win The SEC Championship
Scenarios For Georgia
In If: Georgia beats Georgia Tech and Georgia wins SEC Championship
Out If: Georgia Tech beats Georgia or if Georgia does not win SEC Championship
Henderson: If Georgia wins out, they are in. The SEC Champion will have a seat at the college football playoff table. If Georgia does not win the SEC Championship, they are out.
Even With Two Losses, Ohio State Is Still Alive
Scenarios For Ohio State
In If: Ohio State beats Michigan, then beats Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, Auburn wins SEC, Clemson wins ACC, and Oklahoma does not win Big 12
Bubble If: Ohio State beats Michigan, then beats Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, Auburn wins SEC, Clemson wins ACC, and Oklahoma wins Big 12
Henderson: If Ohio State wins out they are likely in the college football playoffs right? Well, a lot depends on what happens in the SEC and the Big 12. If Ohio State is a two-loss conference champion and Alabama is a one loss no conference champion and those two are fighting for the final two spots, who do you take? Let’s say: Clemson is 12-1, Oklahoma is 12-1, Auburn is 11-2, Ohio State is 11-2, and Alabama is 11-1, who’s in? Likely Ohio State as they are a conference champ.
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