Tony's Take: Ranking Alabama's toughest games this season
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Football season is finally here.
Well, that’s if you count the SEC Media Days as the official start to the season. To save us from two more months of non-football summer, let’s just ignore our shadow and get things rolling right away.
*What to expect at SEC Media Days
Alabama is projected as a favorite in each of its 12 games next season and will most likely be picked to win a fourth straight SEC title when the conference reveals its annual media poll on Thursday. With that being said, here is a look at Alabama’s schedule, ranking opponents from easiest to hardest.
12. Mercer
Mercer, an FCS school, went 6-5 last season and finished fifth in the Southern Conference. Let’s be serious, though. Even if the Bears would have gone undefeated and were returning all of their starters, would you give them any chance against Alabama? Of course not... because they’re Mercer.
11. Fresno State
Fresno State finished No. 119 in rushing last season. Alabama has had the nation’s best run defense the past two seasons. The Bulldogs bring back starting quarterback Chason Virgil as well as their top two receiving options but will need to improve on a passing attack that finished No. 84 in the nation. Consider this one more of a snoozer than a sleeper.
10. Colorado State
Here’s an interesting fact: Colorado State was 7-0 when rushing for 200 yards or more last season and 0-6 when they failed to do so. Here’s another interesting stat: The last time Alabama allowed 200 or more yards on the ground was against Ohio State during the 2015 Sugar Bowl. Given that Colorado State doesn’t have Ezekiel Elliot on its side, Alabama should be just fine.
9. Vanderbilt
Alabama fans will be in for an interesting trip when they travel to Nashville, Tenn. on Sept. 23. The city has a thriving music scene, great food options and plenty of nightlife. Oh right, the game. Maybe not as exciting. While it’s true the Commodores have improved every year under head coach Derek Mason, they are a long way off from upsetting the reigning SEC champions.
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8. Ole Miss
No matter which side you look at it from, this game has been a classic the past three seasons. Chances are that trend will end this year. The Rebels lost star quarterback Chad Kelly as well as their leading receiver in tight end Evan Engram. Dual-threat quarterback Shea Patterson showed plenty of promise during his freshman season. However, he will need to put together a memorable performance against the Tide to give Ole Miss a chance.
7. Mississippi State
Alabama’s 51-3 win over Mississippi State might bring questions as to why the Bulldogs aren’t farther back on the list. The reason is Nick Fitzgerald, who enters his junior season as one of the most electrifying players in the conference. Alabama was able to limit the Mississippi State quarterback to a season-low 30.3 completion percentage (10 of 33) for 145 yards and an interception while holding him to 15 yards on 11 carries. Meanwhile, Mississippi State will need to find an answer to Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts, who passed for a season-high 347 yards and four touchdowns with an interception while rushing for 100 yards and another score on the ground during last year’s meeting.
6. Texas A&M
Why is Texas A&M so high on this list? Not a bad question considering Alabama has won the past four meetings, the last three by a combined score of 113-37. Still, this is Alabama's farthest trip of the season, and Kyle Field isn’t the easiest place to earn a victory. The Aggies will need to find a quarterback and replace three of their four leading receivers. There's also the loss of Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. That being said, if Texas A&M can find a way to upset UCLA in its season opener, it could head into its Oct. 7 meeting against Alabama undefeated.
5. Tennessee
Rivalry games are always tough, at least they’re supposed to be. Alabama has certainly made the Third Saturday in October look like cake walk under head coach Nick Saban. The Tide has won the past 10 meetings against the Volunteers, including a 49-10 smoking last season which saw Alabama rush for 409 yards. The Tide should still be careful heading into this one, though. Tennessee narrowly pulled off an upset its last trip to Tuscaloosa, falling 19-14 in 2015.
4. Arkansas
Surprised? Don’t be. The teams that have upset the Tide have generally not been the ones most people expect heading into the season. Sure, the Ole Miss game was circled on the calendar in 2015, but the 2014 Rebels caught Alabama by surprise. So did the 2012 Texas A&M and 2010 South Carolina teams. Even the 2013 Auburn team wasn’t supposed to be too much trouble heading into the start of the season. This year’s Arkansas team returns the SEC’s passing leader in Austin Allen, who tore apart the Tide’s secondary last season, completing 25 of 48 passes for 400 yards and three touchdowns with three interceptions.
3. LSU
LSU might be losing a lot from last year’s team, but if there’s one SEC rivalry that consistently produces close games, it’s this one. Last season’s meeting saw the Tide and Tigers take a scoreless game into the fourth quarter before Hurts scored the game’s only touchdown on a 21-yard run. LSU will be without Leonard Fournette at running back but will return Heisman contender Derrius Guice at the position. Despite the fact that Alabama held LSU to 33 yards on 27 carries, Guice called the Tide’s defense “scared” following last season’s game. That should add another spark to an already heated rivalry.
2. Florida State
Given the not-so-original title “Greatest Opener of All Time” by the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game committee, this should be a meeting of two top-5 teams. Both Alabama and Florida State enter the matchup as title contenders and could very well meet again in the College Football Playoff. What will Alabama’s offense look like under first-year offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and will it be able to move the ball against a loaded Florida State defense? Will the game serve as Hurts’ emergence as a downfield passer, or will fellow sophomore quarterback Deondre Francois steal the show against a Tide secondary that struggled this spring? We’ll know the answers in a little less than two months.
1. Auburn
After back-to-back lackluster Iron Bowls, Auburn appears to finally have an offense that can keep up with Alabama. The Tigers’ failure to find stability at the quarterback position cost them the past two seasons, allowing the Tide’s defense to control the game. With the addition of highly-rated JUCO quarterback Jarrett Stidham, the Tigers might have found the passer its been desperately looking for. Stidham completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 1,265 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions during his one season at Baylor before transferring to Auburn. If he can carry over that success to the end of the season, it could create a battle for the SEC West when the Tide travels to the Plains.
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Biggest threats to Alabama Football this year besides Florida State: Texas A&M, LSU, and Auburn?
In a recent poll, we asked the premium subscribers of BamaInsider.com, what will be the toughest game this season for Alabama other than Florida State. The three teams we selected in the poll were Texas A&M, LSU, and Auburn. $ View Poll Here (Scroll down for results)