The first round of the NFL draft is set for Thursday, marking the next step in the careers of several Alabama players. The Crimson Tide is accustomed to Day 1 success in the draft as it has produced 29 first-rounders since head coach Nick Saban took over the program in 2007. This year should be no different as Alabama projects to be in reach of several first-round marks and milestones.
Today we will examine four attainable first-round records while providing our projections of how likely the Crimson Tide is to reach them.
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Most first-round picks by a single program
Record: 6 from Miami in 2004
Alabama’s projected chances of tying: 35 percent
Alabama’s projected chances of breaking: 5 percent
Outlook: Alabama has been projected to reach this mark in recent years but has always fallen short. This year is one of Saban’s most talented draft classes as the Tide might have four players taken in the top 20 picks. Still, six first-rounders seems a bit far-fetched.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III appear to be locks to hear their name called on Day 1. Players like safety Xavier McKinney, cornerback Trevon Diggs and even outside linebacker Terrell Lewis could also be first-round possibilities but are far less certain to be selected Thursday.
McKinney has been in the first-round of several mock drafts but appears to be losing some momentum in recent days. On the other hand, Diggs is one of four players NFL.com analyst Daniel Jeremiah mentioned Monday as players who could be selected higher than expected. Lewis has been regularly mocked in the second round, but anything can happen on draft day. It’s possible that Alabama could see two members of this trio join Tagovailoa, Wills, Jeudy and Ruggs as first-rounders.
Most first-round picks by a single SEC program
Record: 4 from Alabama (2011, 2012, 2017 and 2018), Auburn (2004) and LSU (2007).
Alabama’s projected chances of tying: 99 percent
Alabama’s chances of breaking: 60 percent
Outlook: Go ahead and chalk this one up as a guarantee. Barring any unforeseen draft disasters, Alabama should have no problem equaling the SEC mark of four first-rounders — a record it has reached four previous times. During our mock draft roundup last week, Tagovailoa, Wills, Jeudy and Ruggs were unanimous first-rounders. The latest any member of that quartet was mocked was Ruggs, who ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. had going No. 21 to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Alabama has a decent shot of breaking the mark as well. McKinney was a first-round selection in five of the seven mock drafts we used last week, while Diggs made his way into the first round four times. It’s also worth noting that LSU has a chance to break this record as well. The Tigers have also seen up to six players mocked in the first round, headlined by projected No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow.
Most offensive first-round picks by a single program
Record: 4 (Notre Dame in 1946) and Southern California (1968)
Alabama’s projected chances of tying: 99 percent
Alabama’s projected chances of breaking: < 1 percent
Outlook: As mentioned above, this is a near certainty. However, let’s not lose track of how special this achievement is. Southern California is the only other program to reach the mark in the common draft era, doing so 1968. Notre Dame also reached the mark, in 1946 despite that year's draft featuring just 10 picks in the first round.
Alabama doesn't have a chance of breaking this record as backup offensive lineman Matt Womack is the Crimson Tide's next likeliest offensive draftee outside of Tagovailoa, Wills, Jeudy and Ruggs. We'd say crazier things have happened, but that would be a lie.
Highest draft selection in the Nick Saban era
Record: No. 3 overall Quinnen Williams (New York Jets, 2019), Trent Richardson (Cleveland Browns, 2012) and Marcell Dareus (Buffalo Bills, 2011).
Alabama’s projected chances of tying:
20 percent
Alabama’s projected chances of breaking:
20 percent
Outlook: If Alabama is going to set or tie this record, it’s likely going to be because a team traded up to land Tagovailoa. The left-hander’s draft stock has appeared to fall a little bit as teams are reportedly concerned over his durability considering his injury history with the Crimson Tide. That being said, Tagovailoa’s potential is unquestionable. Could that prompt a team to spark a trade with either the Washington Redskins (No. 2 overall) or Detroit Lions (No. 3 overall) to move in front of the Miami Dolphins at No. 5?
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Andrew Bone, of BamaInsider.com, is a real estate broker in the state of Alabama.
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