Alabama fans have never rooted this hard for Rhett Lashlee. The former Auburn offensive coordinator is now the head coach of SMU and just might hold the Crimson Tide's playoff fate in his hands this weekend.
Unlike last year, No. 11 Alabama won’t be able to play its way into the field by winning the SEC title. Instead, the Tide’s attention will be turned to Charlotte, North Carolina, where No. 8 SMU will face No. 17 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
The rooting interest is clear for Alabama. An SMU win eliminates Clemson from stealing a spot as a conference champion and clinches a playoff ticket for the Tide.
Alabama’s playoff hopes wouldn’t be completely dashed if Clemson wins, but it would get a lot more complicated. The Tigers would jump the Tide by clinching a playoff spot as one of the five-highest conference champions. Alabama will also be jumped by the Big 12 champion (either No. 15 Arizona State or Iowa State) for the same reason. That would theoretically knock the Tide out of this year’s 12-team field.
Unless…
Alabama’s one saving grace in this situation would be the committee deciding to drop SMU below the Tide following a loss to Clemson.
Punishing a conference championship game runner-up would undoubtedly stir up some controversy across the college football world. However, a 9-3 Alabama would have three top 25 wins compared to an 11-2 SMU team without one on its résumé.
Would the committee consider dropping SMU below Alabama if the Mustangs lose to Clemson?
“Potentially, yes,” College Football Playoff chair Warde Manuel said when asked following Tuesday’s rankings reveal.
We’ll leave that possible debate for Sunday. For now, Alabama's most direct path is through pulling for Lashlee and his SMU team to take care of business Saturday night. With that in mind, here are five things Tide fans should know as they cheer on the Mustangs.
SMU has a rising star at QB
Earlier this week, Alabama director of player personnel Bob Welton joked that the Tide would loan five-star quarterback signee Keelon Russell (a former SMU commit) to the Mustangs for this weekend’s ACC Championship Game. That won’t be needed, as SMU already has a budding star behind center.
After taking over the starting quarterback role in SMU’s fourth game of the season, Kevin Jennings has put together a breakout sophomore campaign. The dual-threat quarterback has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 2,746 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions while also adding 344 yards and four more scores with his feet.
Russell has been particularly hot since the beginning of November, completing 86 of 123 passes (69.9%) for 1,152 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions in wins over Pittsburgh, Boston College, Virginia and California. He’ll need to continue that against a solid Clemson pass defense that is tied for 47th nationally, holding opponents to 206.9 yards per game through the air.
Don’t forget about SMU’s defense
SMU can win a track meet. The Mustangs boast the nation’s fifth-best scoring offense, averaging 39.2 points per game. SMU also ranks 21st in total offense (441.8 yards per game). However, the Mustangs shouldn’t be overlooked on defense.
SMU is tied for 19th nationally in scoring defense (19.8 points allowed per game). The Mustangs are also tied for 11th with 37 sacks and 23rd with 21 takeaways (15 interceptions, six fumble recoveries).
SMU’s ability to get after the passer should create an interesting matchup, as Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has a 115.5 NFL quarterback rating on dropbacks under pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, that ranks eighth nationally among quarterbacks with at least 100 pressured dropbacks.
Another key matchup will be on the ground, where SMU leads the ACC and ranks fourth nationally holding opponents to 95.83 rushing yards per game. Clemson ranks No. 28 in rushing offense, averaging 190.58 yards per game on the ground.
Stopping Klubnik’s deep ball
Klubnik is one of the nation’s best deep ball passers. According to PFF, he’s completed a respectable 29 of 67 (43.3%) of his passes which have traveled 20 or more yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. Those throws have resulted in 1,050 yards and 13 touchdowns with three interceptions.
Klubnik’s 13 deep-ball touchdowns rank tied for third in the nation. Meanwhile, Clemson is tied for 16th nationally with 49 passing plays resulting in 20 or more yards.
While those are intimidating numbers, SMU has been solid at eliminating explosive plays through the air. The Mustangs are tied for No. 29 nationally, allowing just 30 passing plays of 20 or more yards this season.
Fast starts will be key
Clemson and SMU both get off the blocks quickly.
The Mustangs have outscored their opponents 125-41 in the first quarter this season. SMU has scored 14 or more first-quarter points in five of its games and has shut out its opponents six times in the opening period, including each of its last three outings.
Blanking opponents in the first quarter has been Clemson's specialty. The Tigers have achieved that feat eight times this season and are holding opponents to an average of 1.67 points in the opening period. Clemson is outscoring opponents 121-20 in the first quarter. That includes a 35-0 advantage in a blowout over Appalachian State and a 28-0 advantage in a shootout win over N.C. State.
According to ESPN, SMU is one of five teams to trail in four or fewer games this season. The other four are No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Texas, No. 9 Indiana and No. 24 Army.
Common opponents
While Clemson and SMU appear to be pretty even on paper, one way to judge the two sides is by comparing their common opponents. The Mustangs have a 5-0 record in those matchups, while Clemson is 4-1.
Florida State — Clemson (29-13 W), SMU (42-16 W)
Louisville — Clemson (33-21 L), SMU (34-27 W)
Pittsburgh — Clemson (24-20 W), SMU (48-25 W)
Stanford — Clemson (40-14 W), SMU (40-10 W)
Virginia — Clemson (48-31 W), SMU (33-7 W)
