After being thrown into disarray by COVID-19 this week, the SEC has updated its tie-breaker scenarios concerning its conference championship game on Dec. 19.
At the moment, Alabama (6-0) and Florida (4-1) both appear destined to meet in Atlanta for next month’s SEC Championship Game. Both teams are on top of their respective divisions and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against the second-place team.
From an Alabama standpoint, the road to an SEC West title is simple. If the Tide wins its remaining regular-season games it will be crowned. That’s including the possibility of this week’s postponed matchup against LSU being canceled. Even with nine games, a 9-0 schedule is better than the 9-1 mark the Aggies can top out at if they win their remaining four regular-season games.
That much is easy. Although, before we get into any of the more complicated scenarios, let’s examine some of the language in the SEC’s new tiebreaker document.
First off, the conference states that for a team to qualify for the SEC Championship Game, it must “have played within one (1) total conference game of the average number of conference games played by all conference teams (if .5 or above round up, if below .5 round down) during the 2020 season.”
For example, if the average amount of games played among SEC teams is 9.25, that number would be rounded to nine and the minimum requirement would be eight conference games.
There’s also an important clause that reads: “Should unanticipated, extraordinary circumstances prevent a team from being within the required number of total games played for head-to-head results to be considered in a tiebreaker, the Commissioner shall review the relevant facts and will be empowered to establish a method (which could include, but is not limited to, the formation of any determining body or use of any existing groups of institutional representatives) for taking any appropriate action deemed necessary in determining if relief should be granted to permit the head to head results to be considered in a tiebreaker.”
With that out of the way, let’s break down how the new rules could affect Alabama moving forward. For this exercise, let’s assume that the LSU game does not get made up and Texas A&M is able to play all 10 of its regular-season games.
Tiebreaker scenarios between Alabama and Texas A&M
— If Alabama loses a game and Texas A&M wins out: Alabama would finish 8-1, while Texas A&M would be 9-1. Texas A&M would have a better winning percentage, but Alabama would advance to the conference championship as the SEC has determined the head-to-head game between the two teams will take precedence over winning percentage.
— If Texas A&M wins out, Alabama loses a game and has another game canceled: Here’s where things get a little tricky. At this point, Texas A&M would be 9-1 and Alabama would be 7-1. According to SEC rules, Alabama would still hold the advantage over Texas A&M, provided it reaches the minimum required games. However, if Alabama was below the required minimum, it could receive a one-game leniency if it was “ready and able to play 10 games during the regular season.” In other words, Alabama wouldn’t get punished for a situation like this week where LSU experienced a COVID-19 outbreak and was unable to reschedule. That one-game bump can only be applied once. However, as stated above, the SEC is empowered to step in if such a situation arises.
If the SEC Championship Game is canceled, the two division winners will be declared co-champions. The highest-rated team according to the College Football Playoff Selection Committee would be the SEC’s top representative in any bowl decisions.
