A look at possible bowl destinations for the Alabama Crimson Tide

For the first time since the invention of the College Football Playoff, Alabama will watch the latest rankings reveal without a realistic shot of playing for the national title. As per usual, the latest rankings will be unveiled at 6 p.m. CT Tuesday on ESPN. While the Crimson Tide no longer has to concern itself with being in the top four, the rankings could still have a lot to say about where Alabama will play its bowl game.

The Crimson Tide’s bowl destinations essentially come down to four spots. Here’s a look at each of them:

This is only a possibility for the truly optimistic Alabama fans. The SEC champion is automatically slotted to the Sugar Bowl except for when that team qualifies for the College Football Playoff. This year, the champion is guaranteed to be involved in the playoff, meaning the Sugar Bowl has rights to the next best SEC team. Assuming No. 1 LSU beats No. 4 Georgia, the Bulldogs would likely still be the second-best team in the SEC, sending them to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl.

Things get a little bit more interesting if Georgia beats LSU as that would likely see two SEC teams qualify for the playoff. In that case, the Sugar Bowl would grab the third-best SEC team. However, that still likely won’t be Alabama as Florida figures to jump the Crimson Tide in the latest rankings. The Gators are currently ranked six spots behind Alabama at No. 11 but have the same 10-2 record as the Crimson Tide with a win over Auburn.

Unlike the Sugar Bowl, this option is at least somewhat realistic. However, Alabama still needs some help if it wants to head to South Beach. The Orange Bowl has a shared tie with the SEC as it pits the highest-ranked ACC team against the highest-ranked SEC/Big Ten non-champion or Notre Dame.

Assuming LSU beats Georgia, this spot will likely go to Florida. Penn State is currently ranked one spot ahead of the Gators at No. 10 and will likely move ahead of Minnesota as the Big Ten’s second-best team. However, with Ohio State likely to make the playoff, the Nittany Lions figure to head out west for the Rose Bowl. If Wisconsin beats Ohio State and doesn’t go to the playoff, it will go to the Rose Bowl, which could send Penn State to the Orange Bowl, assuming it has a higher ranking than the highest remaining SEC team.

So where does Alabama fit into all of this? Just like the Sugar Bowl scenario, Alabama could theoretically be ranked above Florida. If that’s the case, this might be the Crimson Tide’s most likely bowl destination. Another scenario is that Georgia beats LSU giving the SEC two playoff teams and sending Florida to the Sugar Bowl.

This option requires far less chaos than the two above. This year, the Cotton Bowl will feature a matchup of the highest-ranked Group of 5 team against an at-large team. The Group of 5 representative will likely be Memphis or Boise State who both play conference championship games this week. Alabama is in contention for the at-large bid but will have to hold off a few conference championship losers for the spot.

Assuming Georgia goes to the Sugar Bowl and Florida goes to the Orange Bowl, Alabama is the best option out of the SEC. However, the Cotton Bowl could also go with the loser of Oklahoma and Baylor in the Big 12 title game or possibly take Utah or Wisconsin assuming they lose their conference championships.

There’s a ton of variables here, but let’s just assume that LSU beats Georgia and Ohio State beats Wisconsin. That creates an opening for the fourth spot in the playoff. If Utah wins, that spot will likely go to them, sending the winner of the Big 12 to the Sugar Bowl and leaving the loser as a prime candidate for the Cotton Bowl. However, if Utah loses, the winner of the Big 12 would likely make the playoff, sending the loser to the Sugar Bowl. In that case, it would be between Alabama, Utah and Wisconsin for the at-large spot in the Cotton Bowl. Of those three, Alabama makes the most sense both regionally and in brand appeal.

This is where Alabama will wind up if none of the above scenarios come to fruition. The Citrus Bowl matches up the highest remaining SEC and Big Ten schools which aren’t participating in either the College Football Playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl. In years where a Big Ten team is assigned to play in a non-semifinal Orange Bowl, the Citrus Bowl will host the top non-CFP selection from the ACC against the top non-CFP selection from the SEC.

So how does this happen for Alabama? Here’s one scenario: LSU beats Georgia, sending the Bulldogs to the Sugar Bowl and Florida to the Orange Bowl. The Big 12 winner does not advance to the playoff and instead goes to the Sugar Bowl. The Big 12 loser is selected by the Cotton Bowl as the at large team.

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