Where Alabama stands analytically heading into the SEC Tournament
It’s been a shaky couple of weeks for No. 2 Alabama basketball. The Crimson Tide pulled out an overtime win at South Carolina before managing late escapes over Arkansas and Auburn inside Coleman Coliseum. Saturday, Alabama fell to No. 24 Texas A&M 67-61 on the road, which was the Crimson Tide's second-lowest offensive output of the season.
That being said, let’s dive into the numbers from this recent four-game stretch to pinpoint some trends and areas of improvement that will be crucial as it approaches the SEC Tournament in less than a week.
By the Numbers
21.5
First and foremost, the 3-point efficiency has disappeared with it shooting 21.5% (25-for-116) over the last four games; a substantial drop from its season average north of 34 percent.
Freshman guard Rylan Griffen has yet to hit a 3-point jumper (0 for 11) over his last four games. Fellow freshman, Brandon Miller was dynamite against South Carolina, recording 41 points, but the projected lottery pick has made just 16.6% of his 3s (4 of 24) over his last three games.
For one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the sport, like Alabama, you can’t expect this incredibly low shooting output to be the new norm. Miller is one of the best shooting prospects in recent years. Mark Sears is a smooth southpaw shooter at 38 percent, Jahvon Quinerly has been buzzing of late, and the program is filled with levels of aptness on the margins. Everything will be fine.
*****
24
On another note, the Crimson Tide are 1-4 in games in which it posts at least a 24 percent turnover rate, the lone win coming at South Alabama on Nov. 1, according to Barttorvik.com.
In College Station on Saturday, Alabama recorded its highest turnover rate (24.4%) since its tough road loss to Tennessee in Feb.
Alabama plays with pace and urgency in transition, which will inevitably result in a higher turnover rate, but there’s a soft threshold (24 percent) where it can pose major challenges for the Crimson Tide’s ability to pull out victories.
*****
87.5
On a positive note, forward Noah Clowney has been a steady cog over his last four games, posting averages of 11.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, while finishing on 87.5 percent (14 of 16) of his shot attempts at the rim. The 6-foot-10 freshman continues to build palpable buzz as an NBA Draft prospect with only room to grow entering postseason play.
*****
3
Overall, Alabama will continue to lean on Miller to directly or indirectly generate offensive looks with his shooting gravity. If the Crimson Tide clicks from beyond the arc, a 20-point blowout is spurring. Still, if Alabama continues to struggle offensively, it can rest easy knowing its defense still ranks No. 3 in the country, according to KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
*****
Top-seeded Alabama will face the winner of Mississippi State (20-11) and Florida (16-15) in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday, March 10.