Welcome to Tournament Tuesday, a weekly look at where Alabama basketball stands in the NCAA tournament picture. Each week, Tide Illustrated will break down the Crimson Tide’s resume while looking at where it is projected in this year’s 68-team bracket.
Alabama enjoyed a stress-free midweek win over Mississippi State, with Chris Youngblood scoring 27 points and hitting seven of 11 3-pointers. While the win boosted Alabama's confidence, the focus of the week shifted to Saturday's road trip to Knoxville.
According to ESPN win probability statistics, the Crimson Tide held an 88.7% chance to win the game on the road against the No. 4 Volunteers with just over 30 seconds remaining. A costly five-second violation with three seconds remaining allowed Tennessee to inbound and hit the game-winning shot as the buzzer rang in Knoxville. Head coach Nate Oats reflected on the loss, saying he takes a lot of blame.
“That’s a tough way to lose,” Oats said. You’ve gotta give Tennessee a lot of credit for not quitting. We had them down nine mid-way through the second half... We didn’t do a great job closing it. I take most of the blame for the last 30 seconds.”
Alabama now enters a crucial week, where its chances to land a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament are on the brink.
Let’s take a closer look at Alabama’s résumé and its position in the NCAA Tournament landscape.
Alabama's résumé
Record: 23-6, 12-4 SEC
Associated Press rank: 7 (-1)
Net rank: 6
RPI: 2
SOS: 2
KenPom: 6
Quadrant records
Quad 1: 10-6
Quad 2: 7-0
Quad 3: 4-0
Quad 4: 2-0
Bracketology
ESPN: Joe Lunardi has Alabama as a No. 1 seed against No. 16 seed Bryant in the Lexington regional. The winner of that game would go on to play the winner of No. 8 seed Creighton against No. 9 seed Gonzaga.
CBS: Jerry Palm has Alabama as a No. 2 seed against No. 15 seed South Alabama in the Raleigh regional. The winner of that game would go on to play the winner of No. 7 seed Maryland against No. 10 seed Georgia.
Bracket Matrix: The Bracket Matrix, which averages projections from more than 80 analysts and sites, currently projects Alabama as the No. 4 overall team, a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
This week's games
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida (Wednesday at 6:00 p.m.)
Florida record: 25-4, 12-4 SEC
NET: 4 (Quad 1 game)
What to know: It won’t be an easy final home game for some of Alabama’s more experienced players, as one of the top teams in the SEC, Florida, comes to Coleman Coliseum on Wednesday night. The Gators are one of the more well-rounded and dominant teams in the country, ranking No. 4 in offense and No. 7 in defense on KenPom. They also handed No. 1 Auburn its only conference loss in early February.
Walter Clayton Jr. is the Gators’ primary scorer, averaging 16.9 points per game. He currently ranks third in the SEC in three-point attempts per game at 7.6. Alijah Martin is a strong second option at guard for Florida, averaging 14.7 points per game in around 30 minutes per game. Florida also boasts a major presence in the frontcourt with Australian big man Alex Condon leading the way. He ranks in the top 10 in the conference in both blocks and rebounds per game.
No. 7 Alabama @ No. 1 Auburn (Saturday at 1:30 p.m.)
Auburn record: 27-2, 15-1 SEC
NET: 17 (Quad 1 game)
What to know: Alabama's final regular season game will be the second edition of the Iron Bowl of Basketball in 2025, as the Crimson Tide travel to the Plains to take on the top-ranked Tigers for the second time in three weeks.
The last time Alabama and Auburn met on the hardwood, they played in the SEC's first-ever No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in conference history. The Crimson Tide, who trailed the entire game, mounted a late charge to tie it at 65 with around eight minutes remaining. However, Mark Sears had one of his most inefficient shooting performances in conference play, going 4-for-17 from the field.
Sears will need a stronger performance if Alabama wishes to upset the Tigers on their home floor. Since the last matchup with Auburn, he has scored over 20 points in all four of Alabama's games, posting a usage rate over 30% in three of them.
Race for the SEC Title
No. 1 Auburn Tigers 25-2 (13-1 SEC)
No. 2 Florida Gators 24-3 (11-3 SEC)
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide 22-5 (11-3 SEC)
No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers 22-5 (9-5 SEC)
No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies 20-7 (9-5 SEC)
No. 6 Missouri Tigers 20-7 (9-5 SEC)
No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels 19-8 (8-6 SEC)
No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats 19-8 (7-7 SEC)
No. 9 Mississippi State Bulldogs 18-9 (7-7 SEC)
No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores 16-11 (6-8 SEC)
No. 11 Arkansas Razorbacks 16-11 (5-9 SEC)
No. 12 Texas Longhorns 16-11 (5-9 SEC)
No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs 17-10 (4-10 SEC)
No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners 16-11 (4-10 SEC)
No. 15 LSU Tigers 14-13 (3-11 SEC)
No. 16 South Carolina Gamecocks 11-16 (1-13 SEC)
Auburn went viral over the weekend after its team bus erupted in reaction to Tennessee’s buzzer-beater against Alabama, which secured the Tigers sole possession of the SEC regular-season title and the No. 1 seed in next week’s SEC Tournament.
This week is crucial for Alabama’s seeding in the SEC Tournament. If the Crimson Tide lose both games, they could drop to the No. 5 seed, while two wins could secure them the No. 2 seed.
