Published Oct 13, 2023
Staff predictions: Our picks for Alabama's homecoming game vs. Arkansas
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Tony Tsoukalas  •  TideIllustrated
Managing Editor
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@Tony_Tsoukalas

Several of Nick Saban’s streaks at Alabama have been snapped over the past few years. That hasn’t been the case with his success over Arkansas, as he boasts a 16-0 record against the Razorbacks while in charge of the Crimson Tide.

That trend is expected to continue this weekend as No. 11 Alabama (5-1, 3-0 in the SEC) is favored by 19.5 over Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) heading into Saturday’s 11 a.m. CT kickoff inside Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Here’s how TideIlustrated’s staff thinks Saturday's game will play out.

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Alabama 30, Arkansas 17

Alabama owns a long win streak over Arkansas going back to the Mike Shula era in 2006 and even that game went to double overtime. The Razorbacks have struggled out of the gate this year dropping four straight games including three in a row in league play. The Tide has been going in the other direction now that offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has figured out how to better use Jalen Milroe at quarterback. The slow start offensively for Bama has turned into a solid offense over the last few weeks dispatching teams like Ole Miss and Texas A&M in the process.

At home, this seems like an easy call for Alabama. Yes, Arkansas took the Tide to the brink in 2021 in Tuscaloosa 42-35, but that was a much better Razorbacks team than this one. I like Alabama this week 30-17 over Arkansas. I think it will not be a pretty game, but the Tide will be in control most of the day. I also put it in a lower score prediction due to the early time.

— Kelly Quinlan, publisher

Alabama 30, Arkansas 10 

Solar eclipses and before-noon kickoffs for SEC games inside Bryant- Denny Stadium are both pretty rare. However, both of those occur more often than Arkansas wins over Alabama. While I think Saturday’s early start time could lead to a sloppy start for the Crimson Tide, it’s going to take a lot more than that for the Razorbacks to pull off the upset.

If you are a fan of watching quarterbacks get tackled, this is your game. Alabama leads the SEC with 26 sacks allowed while Arkansas is right behind with 23. The difference is, the Crimson Tide has more of a running game to lean on when things get rough on offense.

Over its last two losses to Ole Miss and Texas A&M, Arkansas has ran for a combined 78 yards on 68 attempts, an average of 1.14 yards per run. Between that and the Razorbacks’ inability to protect quarterback K.J. Jefferson, I just don’t see how they move the ball against an elite Alabama defense.

— Tony Tsoukalas, managing editor

Alabama 41, Arkansas 17

Offensively, Alabama is able to introduce vertical running concepts with quarterback Jalen Milroe, leading to a bit of an offensive explosion for Alabama and the redshirt sophomore. The run game outside of Milroe continues to struggle, but the playmakers on the outside are able to silence any worries with multiple chunk plays against an Arkansas defense that has struggled in recent weeks.

KJ Jefferson is able to create some plays with his feet, but the inability for Arkansas to gain positive yardage on the ground consistently creates many third–and-long scenarios where Alabama is able to generate pressure.

— Russell Johnson, recruiting editor

Alabama 34, Arkansas 14

At this point, Alabama is starting to develop its identity on offense and defense. After last week's win in College Station, it seems that the Tide are coming together more than ever.

Based on how we’ve seen the defense play since the Texas game, they are playing fast and physical. On offense, despite the penalties the passing game has started to show promise while the running game continues to figure it out.

Overall, this week could be a statement victory that could put them in the driver's seat for the SEC West. We still have to see it play out but right now Alabama seems to be heating up at the right time.

— Brandon Howard, recruiting writer

Alabama 38, Arkansas 20

Jermaine Burton came alive against Texas A&M, jumping to the top of the receiving charts for the Crimson Tide. If the Georgia transfer can build off of his last performance he’ll be an elite option for Jalen Milroe as he also continues to find his footing within Alabama’s offense. Alabama’s run defense has also improved this season and will see a familiar face this week, Arkansas' Raheim Sanders. Sanders racked up 101 yards and a touchdown against the Crimson Tide last season. While he’s struggled with injuries in 2023, leading to a sputtering Arkansas rushing attack, if Alabama comes out flat, Sanders will be quick to take advantage.

Arkansas has one-score losses to both Ole Miss and LSU and Saban made it clear Wednesday, that being complacent will get Alabama nothing. However, despite Arkansas keeping it close with teams near the top of the SEC West, I think the Tide will show why they remain the favorite to emerge from the division. Milroe and Burton will continue to develop their chemistry and the Alabama offense should send the Razorbacks home with another loss.

— Jack Knowlton, staff writer

Alabama 38, Arkansas 10

I think Alabama will have no problem with this Razorbacks crew on Saturday. I think the Crimson Tide are just significantly better on both sides of the ball.

KJ Jefferson hasn’t been playing as well this season and that trend will likely continue in Tuscaloosa. Especially after last week’s performance, Alabama’s defense will be eager to get after it early and make some plays, giving the Razorbacks trouble getting down the field. As for the offense, Jermaine Burton and Jalen Milroe are coming off of career-high games and they will definitely be making plays this week as well.

— Dean Harrell, staff writer

Alabama 34, Arkansas 13 

Alabama’s offense is starting to find a more balanced identity. Over the past 15 years, the Tide has not had a problem against Arkansas’ defense, but this is a different offense than we’ve seen in the past from Alabama. Look for Tommy Rees to try and piece everything together this week.

The Alabama defense has played like a top-five unit in the country this season. They’re the reason Alabama is still in playoff contention. Look for them to pressure Arkansas early and often and smother their offense

— Jordan Harper, head basketball analyst