This season, The Third Saturday in October is a rare revenge opportunity for Alabama.

The Crimson Tide lost a thriller to Tennessee last season, which had huge implications for the College Football Playoff. For No. 11 Alabama, a win in this season’s contest not only gives the bragging rights back to Crimson Tide fans but also likely elevates them fully back into the elite pack of teams fighting for those four precious playoff spots.

First, The Crimson Tide has to fight off a No. 17 Tennesse team hungry to start yet another winning streak in this storied matchup and beat Alabama at home for the first time since… well see the first of a few numbers behind Saturday’s game:

The last time Tennessee defeated the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. The author of this article was just three years old as the No. 11 Volunteers improved to 6-1 with a 17-13 win over an unranked Crimson Tide team.

The box score details a bleak affair with a combined three interceptions thrown between Volunteers quarterback Erik Ainge and the Crimson Tide’s Spencer Pennington. One of Ainge’s two interceptions was thrown to former Alabama DB and current Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans.

Its a result Crimson Tide fans likely blocked from their memories during Alabama’s 15-year winning streak, but that streak is gone now, and the trends of this rivalry show: Win once and you’re likely to win again. If the wrong Alabama team shows up Saturday, Tennessee just might be celebrating in Tuscaloosa for the first time in 19 years.

Tennesse’s average rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 6 in the country. This season’s Tennessee team isn’t the pass-heavy unit it was in 2022, but Volunteers coach Josh Heupel has adapted. Tennessee’s running backs Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson make up a three-pronged attack that gives Tennessee its balance. While the Volunteers haven’t found as much success through the air this season, if Alabama fails to stop Tennessee’s trio, the Volunteers can ride their ground game to a win on Saturday.

Alabama boasts a strong run defense that allows just 104.43 yards per game, while the Volunteers’ run defense gives up 105.17. That 0.74 difference in yards allowed is representative of how this rivalry often becomes a game of inches. Last season it was a 40-yard wobbler field goal that made the difference for Tennessee. In 2023, it just might be which run defense controls the trenches even slightly better than its foe.

The number of sacks Tennessee has racked up in six games so far this season. The Volunteers' strong pass rush is led by James Pearce Jr.’s six sacks. While Alabama’s passing attack is just as formidable, sacking opposing quarterbacks 26 times in 2023 so far, the Crimson Tide’s pass protection has been questionable at times. If it comes out slow, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe will be in big trouble Saturday.

This rivalry has been streaky for its entire existence, and so too has Alabama's No. 3 Jermaine Burton this season. Crimson Tide fans thought Burton had his breakthrough game against Texas A&M when he had 197 yards and two touchdowns, only to drop off against Arkansas finishing with 60 receiving yards. Milroe will need all his playmakers at their best and a big game from Burton could break open Saturday’s contest.

On the Tennesee side, keep an eye on its own No. 3 Dee Williams. Williams fields punts for the Volunteers and took one to the house last Saturday against Texas A&M, which put Tennessee up 13-10 and swung the momentum back in the Volunteers' favor.

Alabama’s average penalty yards per game this season, which ranks in the bottom half of the NCAA. The Crimson Tide had a couple of big penalties against Arkansas, which allowed the Razorbacks to claw their way back into the game. Alabama coach Nick Saban has talked all season long about limiting mistakes and staying disciplined to finish out games. Alabama is going to have its hands full dealing with Tennesee’s pass rush and Heupel’s schemes on offense. If Alabama gives away an extra 55 or more yards from penalties it will cripple the Crimson Tide on Saturday.

The number of cigars expected to be sold by R&R Cigars in Tuscaloosa. It was the Tennesee fans enjoying the rivalry tradition last season, but it would be foolish to think Alabama was not preparing itself for some victory cigars should Saturday’s game go its way. Players and even Saban have spoken about tradition all week. It’s up to them to determine if it will be Alabama’s turn to pay the fine that comes with lighting the cigars.