Projecting Alabama basketball's path to the Final Four

The SEC titles are swept and the No. 1 overall seed is secured. Now, the real madness begins for Alabama basketball. The Crimson Tide earned the top spot in the NCAA Tournament and will be the No. 1 seed in the South bracket.

Alabama (29-5) will open up play Thursday at 1:45 p.m. CT against the winner of the No. 16-seed matchup between Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Southeast Missouri State. If the Crimson Tide can navigate its first hurdle it will advance to play the winner of No. 8 seed Maryland and No. 9 seed West Virginia on Saturday.

Alabama’s first two rounds will be held inside Birmingham’s Legacy Arena. From there, the Crimson Tide could advance to Louisville, Kentucky for the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight. This year’s Final Four will be held in Houston.

Here’s a breakdown of Alabama’s path to topping the South bracket as well as a look at who it will have to beat along the way.

Location: Birmingham, Alabama (Legacy Arena)

Possible opponents: No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (23-10), No. 16 Southeast Missouri State (19-16)

Scouting Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: The Islanders have won 12 of their last 13 games thanks to a high-powered offense that sinks 3s and free throws. Texas A&M-CC shoots 36.8% from beyond the arc and 79% from the free-throw line. If the Islanders are on, they may be able to get into a shootout with Alabama — at least for a little bit.

Scouting Southeast Missouri State: The Redhawks got hot at the right time, shaking off back-to-back losses to win all four of their games in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. They are led by sophomore guard Phillip Russell, who is averaging a team-high 18.2 points and 5.0 assists.

Will Alabama advance?: Of course. No. 1 seeds have posted a 147-1 record against No. 16 seeds with the only loss coming in 2018 when the University of Maryland Baltimore County beat Virginia, 74-54. Alabama is too complete of a team to suffer a fate like that.

Location: Birmingham, Alabama (Legacy Arena)

Possible opponents: No. 8 Maryland (21-12), No. 9 West Virginia (19-14)

Scouting Maryland: Sophomore guard Jahmir Young leads the way for the Terrapins, averaging a team-high 16.1 points and 3.2 assists. Meanwhile, sophomore forward Julian Reese is a nice presence down low, averaging 11.2 points along with a team-high 7.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game. Maryland turns the ball over just 10.5 points per game and holds opponents to 31.8% shooting from beyond the arc. Those two stats could be concerning for an Alabama team that shoots a lot of 3s and is often loose with the ball.

Scouting West Virginia: The Mountaineers average a solid 76.8 points per game but have also given up 70.8 points on the other end. Senior guard Erik Stevenson is averaging 15.5 points while shooting 43.8% from the floor and 38.1% from beyond the arc. He has scored 23 or more points in five of his last seven games, averaging 22.7 points over that span.

Will Alabama advance?: Yes. Maryland figures to be the more difficult matchup for Alabama. However, even if the Crimson Tide does get the Terrapins, it should have the firepower to advance out of Birmingham.

Location: Louisville, Kentucky (KFC Yum! Center)

Possible opponents: No. 4 Virginia (25-7), No. 5 San Diego State (27-6), No. 12 College of Charleston (31-3), No. 13 Furman (27-7)

Scouting Virginia: The Cavaliers play at a snail's pace compared to the Crimson Tide’s fast-flying attack. According to KenPom.com, Alabama ranks fourth in the nation in adjusted tempo with 72.7 possessions per 40 minutes. Meanwhile, Virginia is fourth-lowest in the stat, averaging 61.6 possessions. The Cavaliers average just 8.6 turnovers per game and shoot 35.3% from beyond the arc. If they are able to play at their tempo while getting their shots to fall, they could frustrate Alabama.

Scouting San Diego State: Like Alabama, the Aztecs have a deep roster that allows them to wear down opponents. Unlike Alabama, San Diego State relies almost exclusively on upperclassmen and has one of the most experienced sides in the tournament. The Aztecs took Arkansas to overtime in the Maui Invitational and are capable of giving Alabama a game as well.

Scouting College of Charleston: The Cougars would need multiple upsets in order to earn a matchup against Alabama in Louisville. However, with five players averaging double-digit scoring, they could be a team to watch for an upset. According to KenPom, the Cougars rank 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 75th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s a solid stat for a double-digit seed.

Alabama vs. Furman: This unlikely matchup would pit Alabama forward Noah Gurley against his old team. The Paladins are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1980. They love to light it up from beyond the arc and have eight regulars who shoot 32% or higher from deep.

Will Alabama advance?: Yes. If Alabama advances from this stage, it will tie its deepest run in the tournament. The Crimson Tide has made it to the Elite Eight just once in program history, reaching the milestone in 2004 before losing to eventual champion Connecticut.

Alabama’s two likeliest matchups if it makes the Sweet 16 would be Virginia and San Diego State. While both present challenges, the Crimson Tide has to like its chances against either.

Location: Louisville, Kentucky (KFC Yum! Center)

Possible opponents: No. 2 Arizona (28-6), No. 3 Baylor (22-10), No. 6 Creighton (21-12), No. 7 Missouri (24-9). No. 10 Utah State (26-8), No. 11 N.C. State (23-10), No. 14 UC Santa Barbara (27-7), No. 15 Princeton (21-8)

Scouting Arizona: Alabama has struggled against bigs who can score, and Arizona has two of those in junior Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo. Tubelis leads the Wildcats averaging 19.8 points and 9.3 rebounds and is followed by Ballo, who averages 14.2 points and 8.5 boards to go with a team-high 1.3 blocks. The Wildcats head into the Big Dance red hot after upsetting No. 1 seed UCLA to claim the Pac-12 tournament title.

Scouting Baylor: The Bears lost their first game of the Big 12 tournament last week but come into the Big Dance with an impressive resume that includes wins over No. 1 seed Kansas, No. 2 seeds Texas and UCLA and No. 3 seed Gonzaga. Baylor shoots 37.2% from deep thanks in large part to a pair of sharpshooters in junior LJ Cryer (42.6%) and senior Adam Flagner (40.3%).

Scouting Creighton: Creighton has been a thorn in Alabama’s side in the past, beating the Crimson Tide 58-57 in the first round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament before recording a 72-52 victory in the first round of the 2016 NIT. While it will take at least one upset for the Blue Jays to make it to the Elite Eight, they have a team capable of accomplishing the feat. Creighton is led by two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, Ryan Kalkbrenner. The 7-foot-1 junior averages 15.6 points and 6.1 rebounds to go with 2.2 blocks per game.

Scouting Missouri: Alabama has already beaten Missouri twice, but the Tigers provided a much better fight in last weekend’s 72-61 defeat than they did during an 85-64 home blowout loss to the Crimson Tide in January. D’Moi Hodge got hot against Alabama over the weekend, scoring 21 points while hitting 3 of 6 shots from beyond the arc. If Missouri can pair that same production with an improved performance from Kobe Brown, it could be a problem for Alabama if the two teams match up for a third time.

Scouting Utah State: The Aggies rank 13th in adjusted offense according to KenPom. The leader of that attack is junior guard Steven Ashworth, who is averaging a team-high 16.3 points and 4.5 assists while shooting 46.2% from the floor and 44.3% from beyond the arc. Ashworth also leads the team with 1.2 steals per game and is the type of player who could breakout this month.

Scouting N.C. State: Which Wolfpack team is going to show up? There’s the one that beat Duke 84-60 in early January and the one that suffered two 20-point losses to Clemson this season. N.C. State is led by a pair of talented guards in sophomore Terquavion Smith and senior Jarkel Joiner, who both average more than 17 points per game. If those two can get hot, the Wolfpack can keep it close with anyone.

Scouting UC Santa Barbara: It’s highly unlikely the Gauchos will make it this far, so we won’t spend too much time on them. Still, it’s worth noting they have five regulars who shoot 50% or higher from the floor.

Scouting Princeton: Princeton also won’t be advancing this far. The Tigers won the Ivy League behind senior forward Tosan Evbuomwan, who is averaging 15.0 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists. However, they don’t have the depth to keep up with the bigger teams in the bracket.

Will Alabama advance?: Just barely. While a potential matchup against Arizona’s talented frontcourt duo appears daunting, Alabama should still be able to wear down the Wildcats with its depth, assuming it plays up to its standards. Baylor would also be a tough opponent, but the Crimson Tide’s high-powered offensive attack might be too much for the Bears to handle. Outside of those two, it's hard to find a team that would give Alabama too much trouble, assuming the Tide doesn't do anything to beat itself.