NUMBERS CRUNCH: How does Blake Sims, Bama offense do in crunch time
Alabama quarterback Blake Sims has engineered crucial scoring drives in each of Alabama's past three games, helping fuel three key victories and, thanks to him and a stellar defense, those have put Alabama atop the College Football Playoff Rankings released on Tuesday night.
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The success in pressure situations begs the question: How does Sims and the rest of the Alabama offense fare when it matters most?
Using data collected throughout the season by TideSports.com, we will take a look at all 130 offensive plays run by Alabama in what we've outlined "crunch time."
How do we define it? We took every snap played by Sims in games where Alabama either trailed or led by 10 points or less from the midway point of the third quarter on.
Much to the chagrin of the Crimson Tide fanbases' blood pressure, Alabama has seen plenty of crunch time situations in 2014. Those situations arose against Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Mississippi State.
We take a look at the good and bad from Alabama's offense when the pressure is on.
Blake Sims
The biggest concern coming into a season with a first year quarterback would be mistakes, the nightmare being crucial mistakes with the game on the line. Sims has hardly been perfect, but overall, he's done enough to keep his team in games.
Compare his crunch time passing numbers to his overall numbers and, as expected, they are slightly worse. He has completed 28 of 53 passes (52.8 percent) for 306 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in crunch time. That's a peg down from his season-long completion percentage (61.6), a sizeable drop in yards per attempt (8.9 overall, 5.7 in crunch time) and his 2:2 TD/INT ratio is nowhere near his 16:1 ratio outside of all the suspense.
One positive is that both interceptions thrown in crunch time - one on the final offensive play against Ole Miss and against West Virginia early in the fourth quarter - happened more than six weeks ago. He has played in
What Sims may lack in big stats through the air in crunch time, he has made up for a lot of that with his feet.
Sims has 13 carries for 91 yards, by far the best per-carry average (7.0) of any Alabama player in crunch time. He has converted third downs on six of those carries, which suggests he's not just running for nothing, he's making smart decisions about doing it when he can get the first down.
Even more important, and something that could be causing a lower completion percentage, is his ability to elude the rush and get rid of the football. On 62 crunch-time dropbacks, he's been forced to scramble out of the pocket 16 times (12 to the right, two up the middle, four to the left).
He hasn't taken a single sack.
"We want him to (scramble) and 99 percent of the time has always had great judgment of when to do it and when not to do it," Alabama head coach Nick Saban said Monday. "When the play's breaking down. When the protection's breaking down. When he has nowhere to go with the ball. He's pretty elusive. He's got great quickness. He's very athletic."
There's also some measures that can't be defined with statistics - leading the team in the huddle, keeping his cool when the game is on the line, keeping his team in the right play. Of his 23 incompletions in crunch time, only one has been because of an obvious miscommunication with the receiver.
Who gets the work?
In crunch time, Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has been balanced, calling 62 passes and 68 runs. Because Sims has tucked the ball and run on nine called passes, it has led to 77 carries and 58 pass attempts.
So who sees the field and who sees the football most when it matters most? No surprises here.
In terms of snaps played, receiver Amari Cooper leads all Alabama skill players with 126 out of 130, a gaudy 96.9 percent of the time. DeAndrew White is second with 92 plays or 70.8 percent of crunch-time action.
At running back, Yeldon has been in on 64.6 percent of the crunch-time plays and fullback Jalston Fowler is second with 50 plays or 28.4 percent of the time.
Also interesting to note with running backs: Alabama has only played just one crunch time snap all season with Sims under center that did not include have either T.J. Yeldon or Derrick Henry on the field.
When it comes to production, it's all T.J. Yeldon. He leads the team in combined carries, catches and targets (41). His 36 crunch-time carries - or 46.7 percent of the team's crunch-time rush attempts - are 11 more than second-place Derrick Henry. Blake Sims has 13 carries and no one else on the team has more than one.
If there's one outlier, it's that when it's late in games, Sims has actually been targeting Cooper less than average. Sims has targeted Cooper 20 times on his 53 pass attempts (37.7 percent), slightly down from Cooper being the recipient of Sims pass attempts 42.8 percent of the time overall. Still, he's the clear top option through the air with nine catches for 114 yards.
Overall
In 33 crunch time possessions, Alabama has scored a total of 11, 64 points in all (eight touchdowns, three field goals).
As expected, Alabama's numbers don't match up with their overall production offensive, which would be the case with most teams since stat-stuffing offensive statistics - take the blowout win against Texas A&M - wouldn't factor in here because Alabama was well ahead.
Still, it seems Alabama and its first-year quarterback have managed the situations well, scored when it needed points - especially the past three games against Tennessee, LSU and Mississippi State - and kept Alabama atop the college football world.
The stat the means most: In games when there has been crunch time, Alabama is 5-1 and has won five straight.
-Reach D.C. Reeves at 205-722-0196 or dc@tidesports.com.
Crunch time targets/carries
T.J. Yeldon 41
Derrick Henry 26
Amari Cooper 21
Blake Sims 13
Christion Jones 8
DeAndrew White 8
OJ Howard 4
Jalston Fowler 3
Brandon Greene 1
Chris Black 1<
Thrown Away 1
Total Plays
How many plays have Alabama's top skill players participated in during crunch time? (Behind or leading by 10 or less midway through the third quarter or after).
Running Backs
T.J. Yeldon 84
Derrick Henry 45
Jalston Fowler 50
Receivers
Amari Cooper 126
DeAndrew White 92
Christion Jones 74
Chris Black 25
Cam Sims 10
ArDarius Stewart 6
Tight Ends
Brian Vogler 69
OJ Howard 67
Crunch-time statistics
Passing
Blake Sims: 28-53 passing, 306 yards, 2 TD 2 INT
Rushing Stats
Overall team stats: 77 carries, 403 rushing yards
T.J. Yeldon 36 carries - 188 yards
Derrick Henry 25 carries - 122 yards
Blake Sims 13 carries - 91 yards
Jalston Fowler 1 carry, 2 yards
DeAndrew White 1 carry, 6 yards
Amari Cooper 1 carry, minus-6 yards
Receiving Stats
Amari Cooper 9 catches, 114 yards
Christion Jones 4 catches, 53 yards
Derrick Henry 1 catch, 29 yards
DeAndrew White 3 catches, 24 yards
Brandon Greene 1 catch, 24 yards
T.J. Yeldon 4 catches, 19 yards
Cam Sims 1 catch, 15 yards
Jalston Fowler 1 catch, 9 yards
Chris Black 1 catch, 7 yards
OJ Howard 2 catches, 12 yards
One thrown away