When it comes to projecting Alabama’s success this fall, it’s anyone’s guess. There’s still plenty to figure out before the Crimson Tide opens its season against Middle Tennessee State on Sept. 2 inside Bryant-Denny Stadium. To help pass the time until then, TideIllustrated will delve into 23 questions concerning the 2023 season.
Today, Tony Tsoukalas and Dean Harrell provide their takes and a few over/under categories concerning Alabama’s season.
Number of quarterbacks to start at least one game — 1.5
Tony: It seems weird considering Alabama has three viable starting options behind center, but I’m going to go under here. Nick Saban will want to sort out his quarterback battle before the season, and the Crimson Tide don’t have much time to experiment with Texas coming to town in Week 2.
This is a bit of an optimistic take, but I’m assuming whoever wins the job coming out of camp will hit the ground running. The season-opening starter should be able to build up some momentum against Middle Tennessee in Week 1. If he can use that to pass a Week 2 test against Texas, there shouldn’t be any looking back.
Dean: I think this is an easy over for this season. Not only were Ty Simpson and Jalen Milroe battling for the starting position, but now Tyler Buchner is thrown into the mix as well. I think at some point, all three of these guys will start at least one game.
Early on in the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Saban starts Milroe and then tries out Simpson for a few games as well to see who is a better fit. Maybe even Buchner as well. All three have different styles of play, so it will be interesting to watch how the offense plays with each man under center.
Freshman starters (redshirt freshmen included) — 4.5
Tony: This one is going to be close and could come down to whether or not Ty Simpson wins the starting job behind center. I have redshirt freshman Elijah Pritchett and true freshman Kadyn Proctor locking down starting roles on the offensive line. On defense, I think one or both of redshirt freshman Earl Little Jr. and true freshman Caleb Downs will be part of the starting secondary. That's four already without including Simpson or potential wildcards such as true freshman running back Justice Haynes or redshirt linebackers Jeremiah Alexander, Jihaad Campbell and Shawn Murphy.
Still, when it comes to true starters (players who start six or more games) I’m going with the under. I’m sticking with my pick of Milroe behind center, and due to the late transfer additions in the secondary, I don’t expect Downs and Little to both start. There might be more than four freshmen who make at least one start, but as far as regular freshman starters, the Tide will fall just short of this mark.
Dean: Even with many talented freshmen on this roster, I believe it will be a veteran-dominated lineup with only a couple first-year players getting starting roles. On the offensive side, I think Elijah Pritchett will get the nod at left guard this season as he has proven this spring to be an impact player for the Crimson Tide.
On the defense, it is almost no doubt that Caleb Downs will be starting at strong safety this season due to his impressive showing this spring. However, despite a talented freshmen class, I believe Downs and Pritchett will be the only two freshmen able to take a starting job this season. I'll go under.
Number of carries by Alabama’s top running back — 150
Tony: This is an easy under for me, even with first-year offensive coordinator Tommy Rees looking to re-establish the running game. Jahmyr Gibbs had just 151 rushing yards last year, and six games with 15 or more carries. A playoff run could mean more games which also means more carries, but I expect Alabama to distribute the ball pretty evenly throughout its deep backfield. Even if Alabama plays a 15-game schedule, I still don’t see the top back hitting the 150-carry mark.
I’m also going to stick to my current prediction of Jalen Milroe winning the starting job. In that case, the dual-threat quarterback will inevitably take away carries on designed runs.
Dean: With Alabama’s backfield having so much talent throughout, I believe that touches will be very well distributed to the backs which will cause this line to go under.
Jase McClellan will likely get the most carries this season, but not over 150. Also carrying the load will be Roydell Williams, Jamarion Miller, and Justice Haynes as well which will result in no particular running back dominating the ball.
Receiving yards for Alabama’s top wideout — 1,000
Tony: I’m locked into the over due to my answer in a previous 23 for ’23 question. I have no problem with sticking to my guns either. I believe Malik Benson will develop into a true No. 1 receiver for Alabama and that whichever quarterback wins the job will provide him with plenty of targets.
Dean: I believe this line will be a similar result to last season where no receiver came close to reaching the 1,000-yard mark. Not because they didn’t have the talent, but because Alabama has so many talented receivers that any quarterback won't have to focus on one guy.
With a receiving core featuring Malik Benson, Jermaine Burton, Kobe Prentice, Ja’Corey Brooks, Isaiah Bond, and more, there will be plenty of targets to choose from downfield instead of one or two main guys. Give me the under.
Alabama's total passing touchdowns — 29.5
Tony: Alabama has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns in each of the last five seasons, but before 2018 the Tide had reached the mark just three times in the Saban era. I think Alabama comes closer to reaching this number than most would initially think. However, with a first-year starter at quarterback and a loaded backfield, I’ll side with the under on this one.
Dean: With a loaded running back room once again in Tuscaloosa, I believe the run game will be utilized tremendously this season. Especially if Jalen Milroe gets the starting job, the ball will be on the ground the majority of the time as it is which will result in fewer scoring plays through the air. Even if a pocket passer such as Ty Simpson gets the starting spot under center, I believe Alabama will still be on the ground the majority of the time either way. I’m taking the under.
Will Reichard made field goals — 22.5
Tony: It’s tempting to go over on this one due to Alabama’s potential struggles on offense, but 23 field goals is a big total. As successful as Will Reichard has been, he’s never hit that mark in his career. Last year he came away with 22 field goals despite making a stellar 84.6% of his kicks. While I expect Reichard to have a solid final season at Alabama, I think he falls under this mark.
Dean: Despite hitting 22 field goals in his last two seasons, I believe this is the year that he will surpass that number and go over the line. Without Bryce Young in the pocket, I don’t think the red zone offense will be as effective as before which will lead to more field-goal opportunities for Reichard. He has proven to be one of the better kickers in recent history for the Crimson Tide and I think he will continue to show it during his senior year.
Alabama non-offensive touchdowns — 4.5
Tony: For perspective, Alabama had four non-offensive touchdowns last year — two off of punt returns, and one each from fumble returns and interception returns. Even though I don’t foresee teams kicking the ball to Koo-Aid McKinstry, I’m going to take the over here. I wouldn’t be surprised if McKinstry finds the end zone a few times on defense. He’s one of several playmakers in the secondary who seem to have a nose for the football. Alabama’s elite pass-rushing unit might generate a couple of scoop-and-scores as well.
Dean: Though the Alabama defense and special teams can come up with some electric plays from time to time, I don’t see the Crimson Tide going over in this scenario. I won’t be surprised if Kool-Aid McKinstry takes a few to the house on a punt or kick return, however.
The Alabama defense came up with two touchdowns last season and I expect a similar result this year. I think that the special teams will be more likely to take the ball to the endzone than the defense, but I’m still taking the under.
Alabama All-Americans — 3.5
Tony: I think Alabama has four All-Americans on its roster, but I don’t think there will be four Crimson Tide players who make the cut this year. Kool-Aid McKinstry seems like a safe bet for the honor, while J.C. Latham is in a good position to grab a spot as well. I think Malik Benson has the talent to put together a stellar first season at Alabama. However, even if he does, I don’t see anyone else putting up the numbers needed to earn All-American status. I’ll go under.
Dean: While Alabama features tons of talent across the board, I think this one will just barely go under. Kool-Aid McKinstry is practically a lock for an All-American campaign once again, but the other spots aren’t as clear-cut.
I believe that another All-American selection will likely go to Dallas Turner. Projected to be a first-round draft pick in 2024, Turner has already made a name for himself that will only continue to grow. Lastly, I think the other spot will go to J.C. Latham. The big lineman has another year in front of him to impress the country with his ability to protect the pocket and I believe he will do just that.
First-round picks in next year’s NFL Draft — 3.5
Tony: I have J.C. Latham, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Dallas Turner as first-round locks, so the question is whether or not another player steps up and joins the mix. Once again, I’m really high on Malik Benson and believe he could have an impact similar to Jameson Williams’ 2021 campaign. Someone like Chris Braswell or Malachi Moore could also ride a successful season into the first round. Give me the over here.
Dean: This will be another close one, but I think this 2023 team will replicate last year and produce three first-round picks. J.C. Latham and Dallas Turner are already projected to both be drafted within the top 15 as it is, but Kool-Aid McKinstry could land in the top 15 as well.
Though there are many players on the brink of being a first-round pick, such as Malachi Moore, I don’t think there will be more than three first-round selections from Alabama. I’ll take the under.
Alabama regular-season wins — 10.5
Tony: Alabama is certainly capable of dropping two or more games in the regular season, especially if things get rocky behind center. However, I’m betting on the GOAT here. Alabama has suffered two or more regular-season losses just four times under Nick Saban and has never done so in back-to-back years. Most of Alabama’s tough matchups will be inside Bryant-Denny Stadium, and I expect this team to play with a chip on its shoulder. I’ll take the over as Alabama returns to the College Football Playoff.
Dean: I think this will be a close call but I feel confident that Alabama will go over this line. The toughest games of this season against Tennessee, LSU, and Texas are all at home which is a huge advantage considering it was the opposite last season and it did not go as planned for the Crimson Tide.
However, just because the tough opponents are coming to Tuscaloosa doesn’t mean it will be a cakewalk. Tennessee and LSU are not easy outs, and neither is Texas A&M as we saw last season, but this time the Aggies will be hosting. Ultimately I think it will be a tough over to reach, but it will happen.