What we think will happen between Alabama vs. Ohio State
What we think will happen tonight in the College Football National Title Game
1. Mac Jones outshines Justin Fields
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is coming off a memorable performance against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl throwing for 385-yards with six touchdowns and one interception to lead the Buckeyes to a 49-28 route over the Tigers. While questions surround Field’s health going into the title game after suffering a brutal hit to the ribs last week, the bigger question might be is whether or not Fields can stay consistent passing the football against a very good Alabama secondary. During the Big Ten Championship game, Fields was less than stellar going 12 of 27 for 114-yards with 0 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Against No. 9 Indiana, back in late November, Fields was 18 of 30 throwing for 300-yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. On the season, in just 192 attempts, Fields has thrown six interceptions. What has separated Alabama quarterback Mac Jones this season from the rest of the quarterbacks across the landscape of college football has been his efficiency passing the football. In 357 attempts, Jones has thrown for 4,036-yards with 36 touchdowns and just four interceptions and has a passing completion percentage of 77.0% which leads the country. Point being: While both quarterbacks are among the best in the nation, Fields has a tendency to force bad balls, which we feel will be a giant x-factor into tonight’s game.
2. Ohio State running back Trey Sermon could be a problem
If you’ve seen games where Alabama’s defense has struggled to stop a high impact running back that can move the chains again and again, or rip off the big run for a score, then be worried about 6-foot-1, 215 pound Ohio State running back Trey Sermon. Sermon rushed for 29 attempts against Clemson for 193-yards with a touchdown. The week before Sermon was basically unstoppable against Northwestern in the Big Ten title game rushing for 331-yards with two touchdowns off 31-carries. In the past three games, Sermon has rushed for a whopping 636-yards off 70-carries for which is an average per carry of 9.0. Alabama’s defense must eliminate big plays from Sermon, or the Alabama defense will be in for a long night.
3. Lots and lots of points
Vegas has the over/under (prediction of total points) at 76. That means Vegas is predicting around 11 touchdowns total in this game. Let’s think about this for a second: Is Alabama going to score at least five touchdowns? Well, for stat reference, the Crimson Tide has scored over 35 points in 11 out of their 12 games this season. Is Ohio State going to score at least four touchdowns? Well, considering the Buckeye’s offense is averaging 43.2 points per game, you have to think the Buckeyes with their big-play ability get their points. So if you’re looking to make some cash off the over, take it all day long as this game should be a firework show with lots of big plays and an overflow of touchdowns.
4. Special teams plays a role
Alabama has a secret weapon this season: Sophomore kicker, yes, we said kicker, in Will Reichard. Reichard has been literally flawless this season hitting 77 of 77 PATs and hitting all 13 attempted field goals this season. In the past under Saban’s almost entire tenure at Alabama, the Crimson Tide has struggled to put the ball through the uprights, this season is not the case. Ohio State’s kicker Blake Haubeil is 5 of 7 on field goals and 24 of 27 on PATs for comparison sake. Ohio State does seem to have the edge in the punting game as Drue Chrisman is averaging 45.5-yards per punt compared to Alabama’s punter Charlie Scott who is averaging 39.3-yards per punt off 20 punts this season. Miscellaneous special teams notes: Alabama’s tight end Jahleel Billingsley returns kicks, it’s not something you see or hear about every day. Long-snapper Thomas Fletcher will start in his 56th consecutive game on Monday night, it's the second most consecutive starts for a member of the Alabama Crimson Tide, after former Alabama punter J.K. Scott.
5. Alabama’s skill guys are the difference in this game
The difference of this game could come down to Alabama’s receivers vs. Ohio State’s defensive secondary. Not only does Alabama have the Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith lined up out wide who has 105-receptions this season for 1,641-yards, there is a strong probability that Jaylen Waddle plays in this game after suffering an ankle injury in October of 2020. Waddle is a sure-shot 1st round NFL Draft pick that is a home run threat every-time he touches the ball. Nick Saban said on Sunday, that pre-game warm-ups will determine if Waddle is good to go.
Alabama’s third-leading receiver this season is running back Najee Harris who has 36 receptions for 346-yards to go along with his 1,387-yards rushing. While we spoke about Sermon, Najee could very well take over this entire game if he needs to. Think back to the SEC Championship game vs. Florida when Harris scored five touchdowns in the matchup.
The Ohio State’s secondary grades out like this player-wise on a 100.0 point scale with 100 being the highest. Corner Shaun Wade has a grade of 66.2, Sevyn Banks has a grade of 67.7, Marcus Williamson has a grade of 55.7, safety Lathan Ramson has a grade of 76.1, and safety Josh Proctor has a grade of 69.4.
Score prediction:
Alabama 45, Ohio State 38
Game Details
What: College Football Playoff National Championship
Who: Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0)
When: Monday, Jan 11
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
Time: 7:00 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN, ESPN 2, ESPN U, ESPNews, ESPN Deportes, ESPN 4K
Line: -7 Alabama
