Alabama basketball pulled out a massive win on Saturday against no. 25 LSU in Coleman Coliseum defeating the Tigers 88-82. Today, Jordan Harper of BamaInsider.com gives you his take on just how first-year head coach Nate Oats has quickly transformed Alabama basketball.

Alabama basketball outlasts LSU behind career-day from Herb Jones

TAKE THREE: Alabama grabs a HUGE win over #25 LSU 88-82

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Where Things Stand Currently

Alabama currently sits at 14-11overall and is currently ranked 7th in the SEC play with a record of 6-6 in a three-way tie with Tennessee and Texas A&M. Alabama has six games remaining and they have to go no worse than 4-2 the rest of the way to have a chance at the NCAA tournament. 18 wins would give the team a decent chance, but they would need to win at least one game in the conference tournament to feel good about their chances. Their numbers are great when it comes to the selection committee’s criteria. Their NET ranking is 39 as of Saturday night, their SOS (strength of schedule) is 9th, and their non-conference strength of schedule is 20. Those are tournament numbers, but what is missing is a good record.

Historically, 14 losses have been the cutoff for teams making the tournament, but in recent years there have been several teams that have reached the tournament with 14 losses. Alabama did so in 2017 as a 9 seed and Florida did the same last season. Alabama needs 19 wins to make the NCAA tournament, and according to TeamRankings.com, they have a 97% chance to make it with 19 wins. Alabama needs wins any way they can get them, but it’s hard to not look back at the wins that slipped through their grasp throughout the season.

Key Changes to the Program

Nate Oats has completely flipped the script when it comes to the style of play that Alabama plays since became head coach. In the previous regime with Avery Johnson, it was a slow and methodical pace that would lessen the number of possessions each team would have. Coach Oats brought a style that is more exciting and more fun to watch and play in. He brought a fast-paced system that typically ends in a three-point attempt, layup, or free throws early in the shot clock. That puts a lot of pressure on the defense to defend more possessions than they are used too.

Over 80% of Alabama’s points come from three-point shots, layups, or free throws. According to Nate Oats, anything else isn’t a high percentage shot. The main difference in Nate Oats and Avery Johnson’s teams is on the offensive end. Alabama currently ranks 2nd in the country in scoring at 83 points per game and 3rd in the country in tempo (pace of play). The highest that an Avery Johnson team averaged was 72 points, and they typically averaged around 200th in tempo (out of 353 teams). Obviously, the faster the pace you play the worse your defense tends to be and that’s the case this season. Alabama ranks 338th in opponents points per game, which is bottom 15 in the country.

Coach Oats has faced a lot of adversity this season from James Rojas and Juwan Gary tearing their ACL before the season, Jahvon Quinerly not being cleared by the NCAA, and Herb Jones breaking his wrist during a pivotal late-season stretch. That is why Alabama is 352nd in the country in KenPom’s “luck rating” which means they are the second unluckiest team in the country.

Room for improvement

Alabama has played like they can beat any team in the country, and they have played down to below-average opponents. As good and fun as Alabama has been this season, there’s a lot to improve on.

Obviously the defense has to be fixed as stated above, but the turnovers are the biggest issue. Alabama ranks 299th in the country in turnovers, averaging over 15 per game. Another area of improvement would be rebounding. You can look up Alabama’s rebounding numbers and see they are top 50 in rebounds per game, but the past seven games they’ve been outrebounded by over ten rebounds a game. That is mainly due to the lack of size that Alabama has, but a team cannot win games consistently when they are being outrebounded by such a large margin.

Everyone could tell that the team started slow this season, mainly due to the adjustment period of the pace of play, but they have gotten very comfortable and it shows in their play. Shooting over thirty threes a game is a lot and Alabama didn’t have the best shooters to play this style, but several players have evolved into elite shooters like Jaden Shackelford (.351 3FG AVG) and John Petty (.451 3FG AVG.) The only way players can get adjusted to a new system is to continue to practice and play at that pace, and it will become second nature to them.

Recruiting

Nate Oats got a late start in the 2019 recruiting class being hired in late March of 2019, but was able to grab a commitment from Raymond Hawkins and graduate transfer James “Beetle” Bolden before signing day. He also landed former five-star point guard Jahvon Quinerly from Villanova, who ultimately did not get cleared to play this season by the NCAA.

Oats’ first official recruiting class won’t make or break his tenure at Alabama, but it will be crucial to fill some voids. Finding a true post presence will be his first task and finding more backcourt depth will be another need to fill.

Oats already has one signee and that’s 6foot-8 200 pound forward Keon Ambrose-Hylton from Ontario, Canada. Ambrose is a big-time rebounder and scorer from all three levels on the court. He is rated #102 in the Rivals 150, but he is underappreciated as a prospect. There are some prospects in the 2020 class that Alabama is actively recruiting such as Keon Ellis (6’6 JUCO SG), Eric Gaines (6’3 PG), and 2021 Josh Primo (Who could reclassify).

Look for Alabama to go the junior college route and grad transfer route when they look to fill open scholarships. Don’t be surprised if Alabama loses 2-3 players this offseason. Kira Lewis will enter the NBA draft and should be drafted in the first round and as there is every season, there will be attrition as Oats tries to build his team with his type of players.

Coach Oats and his staff have this program heading in the right direction and on an upward trajectory. It will take time to get his personnel in the system and for the players to adjust accordingly. His teams will always be exciting, play hard, and will give the fans a product to be proud of.

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