History says to bet on Alabama in Final Four

The sportsbooks say No. 4 seed Alabama basketball doesn’t stand much of a chance against top-seeded UConn on Saturday. The history books say that’s why you should bet on the Crimson Tide.

Making its first-ever Final Four appearance, Alabama opened as an 11.5-point underdog against UConn, according to BetMGM. Since then, some books upped that line to an even 12.

According to Sports Odds History, there have only been four Final Four games with spreads that big over the past 50 years. While the favorite won all four matchups, the underdog beat the spread each time.

So is UConn’s large spread warranted?

It’s certainly hard to argue with the Huskies’ domination this year. So far, UConn has won its four tournament games by an average of 27.75 points. The Huskies have held at least a 30-point lead in all of those matchups, including its Elite Eight win over Illinois in which they went on a 30-0 run on the Illini.

According to KenPom, UConn leads the nation in offensive efficiency and ranks fourth in defensive efficiency. Twenty-eight of the Huskies' 35 wins have come by double-digit margins, including 18 which have been by 20 points or more.

That said, Alabama has caused headaches for the betting experts this month. The Crimson Tide is 4-0 against the spread during the tournament. That includes an outright win as an underdog over No. 1 seed North Carolina.

It’s impossible to ignore Alabama’s defensive struggles. The Crimson Tide ranks No. 104 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Alabama has also allowed more than 1.15 points per possession in three of its four tournament wins. However, Oats pointed out that those stats don’t tell the whole story of how his team is defending lately.

“If you take out the time from when we got up 31 on [Charleston] and look at the rest of the minutes in this tournament, our defense has been pretty good,” he said. “Not UConn’s level good, but pretty good.”

Regardless of how you slice the stats, Alabama’s best chance of winning is shooting its way to success. The Tide is averaging 89.75 points per game in the tournament and is a blazing-hot 41.37% from deep during that span.

The majority of that success has come without starting guard Latrell Wrightsell, who has missed the last two games with a head injury. The senior returned to practice Tuesday and is expected to suit up against UConn barring any setbacks this week.

Wrightsell leads Alabama in 3-point shooting percentage (44.3) and has made all 27 of his free-throw attempts. He is averaging 9.0 points and 3.0 rebounds per game. The last time Alabama had him in the lineup for a full game was during the 109-96 win over Charleston in the NCAA Tournament opener, a game in which the Tide averaged an eye-popping 1.31 points per possession

Alabama also has the advantage of getting to play with a bit of a chip on its shoulder. During Tuesday’s post-practice press conference, Oats said he had only recently learned about the upcoming game’s hefty point spread. Best believe it will be discussed over the next few days.

“We’ll definitely use that,” Oats said. “All the slights that everybody had going into the other games, our players took note. … I’m sure our players will see that and use it.”

When asked Tuesday, Alabama guard Rylan Griffen said he doesn’t give betting lines too much attention. However, forward Grant Nelson said the team has strived while playing the underdog role this season.

“It kind of gives us extra motivation to go out there and prove people wrong,” Nelson said. “It just gives us motivation. It gives another thing to work for.”

Alabama (25-11) and UConn (35-3) are set to face off on Saturday at 7:49 p.m. CT inside State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The game will be aired on TBS.

“We’re not going to be picked to win, I know that,” Oats said. “But sometimes the best team and the one that’s picked doesn’t always win.”