Five-Star Geography: Breaking down five trends at RB
There have been plenty of five-star running backs in Rivals history dating back to 2002. Today, we ask Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell five questions about the position after analyzing some surprising numbers and breaking down the states.
MORE: Where are the 5-star QBs from? | Ranking RBs at Five-Star Challenge
1. Are you surprised by the large number of five-star RBs from Florida, and the high bust rate?
Overview: The state of Florida has six more five-star running back prospects than any other state and while there have been some hits, there have also been plenty of misses along the way including Noel Devine, Jacques Patrick and others. There is no question that running backs coming out of the state have been incredibly athletic and incredibly physically gifted so it’s somewhat surprising that so many players didn’t pan out.
Farrell’s take: I’m not surprised by the number of five-star running backs from Florida because it’s the most athletic state in the country when it comes to prospects at the skill positions. And some would take exception to labeling a guy like Devine as a miss because he had a very good college career, but I can see he never reached the crazy expectations put before him.
There have been some very good running backs from the state of Florida who have had success in college and beyond, but when you have so many ranked that high there are bound to be some busts. But I prefer to look at guys like CJ Spiller, Dalvin Cook, Duke Johnson, Sony Michel and others who had a great deal of success.
2. What should we think about the running backs from Texas?
Overview: The greatest running back in Rivals history - Adrian Peterson in the 2004 class - is from Palestine, Tex., and the No. 1 running backs in the 2020 and 2021 classes hail from that state as well in Houston North Shore’s Zachary Evans and Garland Lakeview Centennial’s Camar Wheaton, but there have been some mega-misses there as well. Lache Seastrunk, Johnathan Gray and Soso Jamabo are three that stand out most.
Farrell’s take: Texas is a great place for running backs and despite a few busts here and there, by and large the state has produced very well at the five-star level. Trey Williams had a very good career as did Christine Michael and the future looks bright with Evans and Wheaton. Malcolm Brown didn’t reach the levels we expected but he’s still an NFL back and has had success. I would never hesitate to go on a high level running back in Texas if I were a college program.
3. Alabama has arguably had the most running back success in the Nick Saban era, but few have come from in-state. What does that say about Alabama's ability to recruit the position?
Overview: Coach Nick Saban has done an unbelievable job during his time at Alabama especially at the running back position and what makes it even more surprising is that he’s had to recruit all over the country to load up in the backfield. Really, his only in-state running back star was T.J. Yeldon from Daphne, Ala. Saban went to California for five-star Najee Harris, who should be the feature back this season, Kentucky for Damien Harris, Florida for Trent Richardson and Trey Sanders, who could be the next big thing in Tuscaloosa.
Farrell’s take: Alabama’s recruiting and development at the running back position has been very impressive. When guys like Damien Harris and Najee Harris need to wait their turn to become standouts, it shows how deep they recruit as well. Derrick Henry should have been a five-star (my fault) and he won a Heisman there, so Saban and his staff do a great job of landing big talents and making sure they develop at the college level.
4. Georgia has recently been able to sign five-star backs, with very few in-state players. What does that say about the program?
Overview: Kregg Lumpkin in 2003 and Isaiah Crowell in 2011. Those were the only five-star running backs from the state of Georgia in Rivals history. But the Bulldogs - through the Mark Richt era and now into the Kirby Smart years - have had a ton of outstanding running backs and could now be considered the school that produces the best players at that position nationally. There is Todd Gurley and Sony Michel and Nick Chubb and now D’Andre Swift is emerging with Zamir White and James Cook in the backfield and the Bulldogs seem to be in good shape for 2020 five-star Kendall Milton.
Farrell’s take: Georgia really stands out as a program that has done a great job recruiting high level running backs and Michel is the five-star who has emerged as the biggest success. However, Gurley should have been a five-star if I didn’t hesitate to pull the trigger and that’s on me. Chubb could make a case as well and Swift is emerging. I think Georgia does the best job recruiting running backs in the country in recent years.
5. Big Ten powers Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan have had big-time running backs, but few five-stars. Are these cases of underranking prospects?
Overview: The Big Ten powerhouses have all had excellent running backs in recent years, whether it was Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders at Penn State, Karan Higdon at Michigan or J.K. Dobbins, who continues to put up huge numbers at Ohio State but none were five-star prospects. Some of those mentioned were right on the cusp of getting that recognition but none made it so is the development at those schools better than anticipated or were the players just slightly mis-ranked through the process?
Farrell’s take: Well, we missed on Barkley a bit, didn’t we? I can say I feel okay about the rankings of Sanders and Dobbins and Higdon was not the stellar back he became in high school. But the Big Ten has done a good job developing running backs overall even without landing too many five-stars. And those they did land, like Derrick Green from Virginia, often got beat out by others. But back in the day, Ohio State did land Chris Wells and he panned out quite well, so it’s give or take at times.