Five-out Friday: Quinerly catches fire as Alabama nets regular-season title

No. 8 Alabama basketball completes season sweep of Auburn

Five-out Friday — Feb. 26

Welcome back to Five-out Friday where Hunter Cruse breaks down five topics surrounding Alabama basketball. Today we’ll examine No. 8 Alabama’s wins against Mississippi State and Auburn.

Alabama was stuck in mediocrity for the longest time, failing to reach the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons over the past decade. Herbert Jones, Alex Reese, and John Petty Jr. are the only three remaining players from Alabama’s disappointing loss to Norfolk State in the first round of the NIT two years ago. Saturday, those three seniors helped the Crimson Tide lock up its first SEC regular-season title since 2002 as Alabama (20-6, 15-2 in the SEC) continues on with its best season in over 20 years.

Looking ahead, Alabama will attempt to regain its offensive prowess before next week’s SEC Tournament as it wraps up its regular season at Georgia on Saturday at 1 p.m. CT. The Tide has fallen off a bit on offense over the past three games, scoring 70 or fewer points in all three outings while compiling a total of 200 points, its lowest total over a three-game stretch at any point this season.

In addition to Alabama’s recent offensive woes, freshman guard Joshua Primo has struggled to find his footing. Like several players his age, it appears he’s hit a freshman wall. Primo played a season-low eight minutes at Mississippi State. His 13 minutes against Auburn earlier this week marked his second-lowest total of the year. He’s shot just 16.7 percent (1 of 6) over the past two games. For Alabama to regain its form on offense, it will need Primo to find his confidence and continue shooting.

Since Feb. 2, Alabama guard Jahvon Quinerly has provided consistent efforts on the offensive end, scoring 10 or more points in the Tide’s last eight games. Over that stretch, he has averaged 13.6 points and 2.6 assists on 54 percent shooting from 3. Those numbers present a strong case for him to become the first player from Alabama to be awarded the SEC’s Sixth Man of the Year.

Here’s the highlight that gained buzz across social media during Tuesday’s win over Auburn. Quinerly is operating in a one-on-one situation against 6-foot-10 forward JT Thor (No. 10). The point guard takes advantage of the mismatch by using an in-and-out crossover to get into a dribble hesitation. This causes Thor to become unbalanced and issue a weak recovery attempt on the drive.

Quinerly then uses his ability to attack defenders off the dribble to give himself an edge. He’s a twitchy guard that can change directions in an instant. Those skills combined with his potent 3-point jumper allows Alabama to utilize him in a multitude of ways.

In basketball terms, Quinerly shows great offensive scalability — the ability to mesh alongside other high-usage players. As a reference point, let’s take a look at how Quinerly stacks up against three other SEC guards who share his same role and stature.

To help us compare, we created a metric called Offensive Scalability Rating or OSR similar to an analytic that measures over a 36-minute basis. The formula is fairly simple: total points produced divided by total minutes played divided by usage rate (time impacting the offense) multiplied by 10.

This formula values solid production on a lower usage rate rather than solid production on a higher usage rate. Although this offers some limitations, as it’s best to scale players that aren’t used as primary initiators.

For example, Quinerly produced 25 points on 15 percent usage at LSU in January. In that game, his OSR measures out at 0.422. At home against Ole Miss, he produced 24 points while carrying a usage rate over 30 percent. His OSR was 0.242. Both great performances, but his ability to provide an effective off-ball role was larger against LSU, something essential for a team like Alabama that doesn’t have a defined No. 1 option on offense.

Heading into the season, there were some questions as to whether Quinerly could provide on a consistent basis outside of his on-ball creation. During his short tenure at Villanova, he shot an underwhelming 25-percent from 3. That has risen to roughly 44 percent at Alabama, demonstrating his improvements in becoming a reliable complementary option when the team needs him most.

Last season, Alabama was inconsistent on the defensive end, finishing No. 114 in KenPom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating. The Tide has risen dramatically this season and now sits at No. 3 nationally. Alabama continued its superb defense against Auburn on Tuesday, forcing a season-high 23 turnovers which was also the most Auburn committed this season.

On this possession, all five defenders are engaged on the Alabama side. Auburn looks out of sync failing to execute the dribble handoff. Petty interrupts it, and Keon Ellis provides help defense to defend the point of attack. Petty switches back onto Auburn’s Allen Flanigan (No. 23) and forces him to the baseline. Jordan Bruner is present for the help side defense, resulting in a poorly executed pass that leads to an Alabama fast-break.

Jaden Shackelford played some of his best basketball of the season on Tuesday, finishing with 23 points and three rebounds on 50 percent (8 of 16) shooting. Fifteen of those points coming after halftime. Shackelford has the ability to take over games when he’s on. Alabama’s 9-2 in games that he hits multiple 3-point jumpers. It’s evident that his efforts can raise the team’s ceiling.

Take a look at this possession above. Juwan Gary fights for the offensive rebound and does his best to get the ball out to the perimeter. Jones dives for the loose ball and penetrates towards the basket allowing Quinerly to be hit in stride for a 3. Knowing Shackelford has the hot-hand, Quinerly draws Auburn’s Devan Cambridge (No. 35) to the corner, allowing Shackelford to spot-up for an open shot from beyond the arc. These are the instances that help you win games in March.

Throughout the recruiting process, Alabama has remained focused on four-star center Charles Bediako, who shares a relationship with fellow Canadians Joshua Primo and Keon Ambrose-Hylton. Alabama was the presumed favorite for months, but it appears the gap has trimmed. However, the Crimson Tide still holds all five FutureCast predictions ahead of his college decision this month. It’s rumored that Bediako could announce his commitment on March 10 which is his 19th birthday. Here’s a look into his game

Bediako is a rim-running big with great athleticism and mobility at the center position. He’s shown the ability to be an impactful shot-blocker, using his 7-foot-3 wingspan to his advantage. He’s slightly unpolished on the offensive side, which is common for players at his size. He could improve on his outside shooting as well as his post touch. Bediako also struggles to finish consistently in back-to-the-basket situations.