Film study: What Alabama basketball is getting in Aaron Estrada

Last week, Hofstra transfer Aaron Estrada committed to Alabama over Cincinnati and Kansas State. The 6-foot-4 senior guard earned back-to-back Colonial Athletic Association Player of the Year honors, displaying a multi-dimensional offensive game, paired with a well-rounded statistical profile that should get fans excited.

Let’s dive into the film room to see what Alabama is getting in the Woodbury, N.J. native.

Traditional stats: 20.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on 57.3% true shooting.

In 12 games against KenPom Top 150 opponents in 2023, Estrada shot 59.3% at the rim, 30.9% from beyond the arc, and 82.2% from the free-throw line.

In 14 games against KenPom Top 150 opponents in 2022, Estrada shot 61.2% at the rim , 37.0% from beyond the arc and 97% from the free-throw line.

Offensive role: Primary ball handler, secondary ball handler

Defensive role: Point of attack, helper

— 91st percentile on spot-up jumpers

— 82nd percentile on dribble jumpers

— 79th percentile off handoffs

— 53rd percentile in isolation

— 51st percentile at the rim

— 48th percentile in transition

In Nate Oats’ dribble-drive system, Alabama puts a premium on players who can handle real usage as both a primary and secondary ball handler – Estrada does that.

He also offers Alabama another high-volume left-handed shooter along with Mark Sears.

As seen above, Estrada’s scout starts with his shot-making versatility. He has a tight handle with the ability to piece together combo moves and quickly establish the base of his shot.

Estrada ran a heavy dose of pick-and-roll at Hofstra, leading to his 29.6% usage rate, The lefty guard can also operate in off-ball screening actions — flying off pin-downs, back screens, you name it.

For instance, Jaden Shackelford was an incredible microwave scorer for Alabama, leading the team in scoring across his three seasons in Tuscaloosa. Though his versatility was limited. 89.1% of Shackelford’s 3-pointers made were assisted in the 2021-22 season, for comparison, 48.6% of Estrada’s 3-pointers made were assisted this season.

Estrada will share the court with more adept ball handlers, so that number will likely climb a bit. Still, it should be nowhere close to Shackelford’s near 90% mark.

Estrada’s jumper is quick and mechanically sound. However, don’t expect him to be a 40% marksman from beyond the arc. A major question is the degree to which he is a 3-point shooter as his efficiency has tended to fluctuate in games against top opponents. Estrada shot 0-for-3 from beyond the arc against Saint Mary’s in November, 1-for-4 against Iona and 1-for-6 against Rutgers in the first round of the NIT.

Starting with his innate instincts as a passer, Estrada led the Colonial Athletic Association in total assists (160) in 2022 and ranked sixth in the conference in total assists (132) last season.

As seen in this compilation, he can execute passes with or without a screen, pinpoint cutters, find kick-out shooters, make cross-court skip passes and make quick situational reads within the flow of an offense.

Estrada has average off-the-line burst at best but leverages his craft, handle, and methodical change of pace to flourish as a driver. He also has terrific touch on floaters and runners, which will be key to translatable two-point efficiency at the SEC level.

Hofstra’s offensive approach differs from Alabama’s rim-and-3 scheme, so expect nearly all of those long 2s to be covered to above-the-break 3s, similar to Sears at Ohio.

Estrada’s on-ball chops will open up Alabama’s offensive attack as a whole, given his combination of ball-handling flexibility, off-ball movement, and shot-making rapport.

He also recorded a 2.4% steal rate last season, which is an indicator for his potent defensive playmaking ability. Estrada is switchable, active in passing lanes, and adept at chasing shooters in off-ball screening actions.

Hofstra ranked No. 177 nationally in adjusted tempo last season, compared to Alabama at No. 4, so he’s bound to benefit from the pace of play under Oats.

The 22-year-old projects as a seamless fit in multi-guard lineups alongside Jahvon Quinerly, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. or Sears, pending upcoming draft decisions.