TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — The betting lines for Saturday’s marquee matchup between No. 4 Alabama and No. 2 Georgia are beginning to vary.
For the first time in 17 years, the Crimson Tide opened as a home underdog as the lines placed the visiting Bulldogs as 4.5-point favorites. Since then, money’s been flowing in the Tide’s direction.
At the time of publication Friday afternoon, FanDuel had Georgia as a 1.5-point favorite, while other sites such as Caesars, DraftKings, and Bet365 all have the Bulldogs as a 1-point favorite. Bally Bet and BetRivers had the game as a pick’em, while BetMGM listed Alabama as a 1-point favorite.
This is a hard game to handicap, as both teams are off to inconsistent starts to the season. Alabama looked shaky during its Week 2 win against South Florida but was dominant its last time out during a blowout victory at Wisconsin. Georgia’s narrow escape against Kentucky in Week 3 still leaves a bad taste for some bettors. However, the Bulldogs have yet to allow a touchdown this season and easily rolled past Clemson in their opener.
With ESPN’s College GameDay set to broadcast its preview show from the Quad on Alabama’s campus on Saturday, college football betting analyst “Stanford Steve” Coughlin broke down this weekend's matchup while speaking with local reporters Friday afternoon.
“I really think it’s a pick’em game,” Coughlin said. “Both teams are more capable than what they’ve shown. Georgia’s obviously getting healthier and having guys that they didn’t have against Kentucky. Alabama, I think really showed what they thought they were going to have.”
Coughlin said he isn’t too worried about Georgia’s 13-12 victory at Kentucky two weeks ago, stating that the Wildcats are “really, really good” on defense. Kentucky held Georgia to 262 yards of total offense and limited projected first-round pick Carson Beck to 15 of 24 passing for 160 yards through the air.
“I expect a better Carson Beck [against Alabama],” Coughlin said. “He seemed a little hesitant, got surprised on some blitzes. … On the road, underdone. You know you have that defense to rely on, so I thought he played to the game plan there and made plays when they had to.”
On the other hand, Coughlin was impressed with what he saw from Alabama in its 42-10 win at Wisconsin. Playing with five-star left tackle Kadyn Proctor for the first time this season, the Tide recorded 407 yards of total offense, including 181 yards on 34 carries (5.3 yards per attempt).
“Going into Week 1, they didn’t have the offensive line until that game in Madison [Wisconsin] when you had [Elijah] Pritchett at right tackle and then you have [Kadyn] Proctor at left tackle and [Tyler] Booker is in his spot,” Coughlin said. “[Parker] Brailsford has been awesome as a fill-in. It looks like he’s put on some pounds, which I thought was going to be a key because he did play pretty light at Washington and knowing the size of the guys he’s going to take on. He’s been spectacular. I think he’s gotten better every game.”
Coughlin said the game’s biggest factor will be which team controls both lines of scrimmage. While Alabama will be playing with a healthy offensive line, Georgia will be without All-American guard Tate Ratledge. The Bulldogs could get a boost on the defensive line as five-star edge rusher Mykel Williams as well as backup defensive tackles Warren Brinson and Jordan Hall are all close to returning to the field after missing the past two games due to injury.
Coughlin previewed Saturday’s College GameDay telecast, stating that former Alabama head coach Nick Saban will discuss how he utilized quarterback Jalen Milroe on designed runs during last year’s SEC Championship Game. Milroe carried the ball 14 times for 29 yards during Alabama’s 27-24 win over Georgia last year, picking up a few crucial first downs for the Tide. This year, the dual-threat quarterback has 156 yards and a team-high six rushing touchdowns on 36 carries.
“Immediately, it made me think what’s Milroe going to run for,” Coughlin said. “When you take on the designed runs, which you saw at Wisconsin, it’s a total headache for the defense. Now, Georgia’s had two weeks. They’ve got to see some of that against Wisconsin on tape. They know what happened to them in the SEC Championship Game.”
The last time Alabama wasn’t favored for a game inside Bryant-Denny Stadium was a 2007 matchup against LSU. The Tide entered that game as a 6.5-point underdog and suffered a 41-34 defeat to the Tigers.
Alabama will look to avoid the same fate on Saturday as it hosts Georgia at 6:30 p.m. CT. Currently, the matchup seems too close to call.
“Like I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being a pick’em game,” Coughlin said. “That stadium [Bryant-Denny] is worth some points for sure, but the talent Georgia has also and the spot that they’re in. I don’t think Kirby Smart could be in a better situation, knowing that they’re still undefeated, but they learned a lot about their team and what they have and what they don’t have. I think adjusting to that, having two weeks to prepare is monstrous.”
