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TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — If it’s not must-win, it’s pretty darn close.
Alabama basketball’s NCAA Tournament hopes continue to teeter in the wrong direction as the team wraps up its regular-season schedule with a trip to Arkansas on Saturday at 5 p.m. CT. In back-to-back home losses to No. 13 LSU and Auburn, the Crimson Tide missed out on two golden opportunities to pad its tournament resume. Now, with only two guaranteed games remaining, Alabama (17-13, 8-9 in the SEC) finds itself running out of opportunities to prove it belongs in the Big Dance.
“I wouldn’t say must-win or last leg, but I feel like it’s definitely a game we got to go out there and win,” forward Tevin Mack said. “Especially since we know we had the last game too and we kind of just let that slip down the stretch.”
As of Friday, Alabama is No. 55 in the NET ranking used to help determine the tournament field. The Crimson Tide is 3-8 against Quadrant 1 teams and 6-3 against Quadrant 2 opponents. Alabama also comes in at a respectable No. 21 in terms of strength of schedule.
Despite its inability to secure crucial wins down the stretch, Alabama is still included in most tournament projections. Both ESPN and CBS Sports have Alabama as a No. 12 seed, playing in a play-in game to reach the field of 64. However, a loss to Arkansas would likely see Alabama slip out of both projections entirely.
“I think there are a lot of teams that would still like to be in our position in terms of fighting to have an opportunity to play in the NCAA Tournament,” Alabama coach Avery Johnson said. “There are teams around the country that they have to win their (conference) tournament to make it to the NCAA Tournament. I just think we got to win some games. I don’t know if we have to win the (SEC) tournament, but we have to win some games and get back on the winning track.”
While a loss Saturday would be a huge blow for Alabama, a win could possibly be enough to secure a tournament berth. Arkansas (16-14, 7-10) is a Quadrant 1 opponent for Alabama since the game is on the road and the Razorbacks (No. 65 in NET) rank inside the top 75 teams in the NET rankings. When asked if he felt his team would be deserving of a spot with a win over the weekend, Johnson said the decision was out of his hands.
“I think we have a resume, and our resume is as competitive with other teams that have lost the same amount of games,” Johnson said. “I think our strength of schedule is good. We’ve had our share of Quadrant 1 wins.
“It’s the last game in SEC play. We’d love to have an opportunity to even our record in SEC play. It’s been tough in this conference this year, and that’s why I guess the projections are that eight or nine teams or whatever are going to make it into the tournament.”
Saturday’s game will also have huge implications in the SEC Tournament seeding. Alabama enters the weekend as the No. 9 seed in the conference but could fall anywhere between No. 10 and No. 7 depending on how things go.
A loss to Arkansas would lock Alabama at the No. 10 spot. However, if the Crimson Tide wins, things get interesting.
Alabama can climb as high as No. 7 if the following happens: Mississippi State loses its home game to Texas A&M; Ole Miss loses on the road Missouri and Florida wins its game on the road against Kentucky. In that scenario, Alabama, Mississippi State and Ole Miss would all be 9-9 in the conference and Alabama would win the tiebreaker based on head-to-head record between the three schools. Alabama is 2-1 against Mississippi State and Ole Miss; Mississippi State is 2-2 against Ole Miss and Alabama; Ole Miss is 1-2 against Alabama and Mississippi State. Alabama would need Florida to win to avoid a four-way tie in which the Crimson Tide would ultimately fall to No. 8.
Head-to-head record also comes into play in a two-team tie. If both teams split against each other then the tiebreaker is determined by the team’s record against the conference's top teams. For example, Alabama’s 77-75 victory over Kentucky would ultimately give the Crimson Tide the nod over Mississippi State.
If Alabama wins on Saturday, the most likely scenario would have the Crimson Tide remaining at No. 9 as Mississippi State and Ole Miss are both favorites in their games. The No. 9 seed will play the No. 8 seed at noon Thursday after a first-round bye.
Alabama had the No. 9 seed during last year’s tournament when it recorded back-to-back victories over Texas A&M and Auburn. The Crimson Tide needed both wins to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. Depending on how the weekend plays out, Alabama might be in a similar back-to-the-wall scenario this year.
“It was just a feeling we wanted to avoid,” forward Herbert Jones said. “But now I mean we’re kind of in the same position, so we just got to take care of business tomorrow.”
